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Testing for short and long-run causality : the case of the yield spread and economic growth
Breitung, Jörg; Candelon, Bertrand - 2001
To assess the predictive content of the interest rate term spread for future economic growth, we distinguish short-run from long-run predictability by using two different approaches. First, following Dufour and Renault (1998) a test procedure is proposed to test for causality at different...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009617950
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A class of Health-Jarrow-Morton models in which the unbiased expectations hypothesis holds
Riedel, Frank - 1997
The unbiased expectations hypothesis states that forward rates are unbiased estimates for future short rates. Cox, Ingersoll and Ross [1] conjectured that this hypothesis should be inconsistent with the absence of arbitrage possibilities. Using the framework of Heath, Jarrow and Morton [4] we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009632605
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The response of long-term interest rates to news about monetary policy actions : empirical evidence for the US and Germany
Nautz, Dieter; Wolters, Jürgen - 1998
We reexamine the expectations theory of the term structure focusing on the question how monetary policy actions … tests of expectations theory this implication only requires rational expectations but not stationary risk premia. Therefore …, its empirical test sheds new light on the importance of expectations theory for the determinants of the term structure of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009578577
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Estimating yield curves by Kernel smoothing methods
Linton, Oliver; Mammen, Enno; Nielsen, Jens Perch; … - 1998
We introduce a new method for the estimation of discount functions, yield curves and forward curves from government … although we do show how to impose various restrictions in the estimation. Our method is based on Kernel smoothing and is … our estimation procedure is iterative, rather like the backfitting method of estimating non-parametric models. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009580489
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Forecasting performance of market share attraction models : a comparison of different models assuming that competitors’ actions are forecasts
Klapper, Daniel; Herwartz, Helmut - 1998
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009578563
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Lag selection in subset VAR models with an application to a US monetary system
Brüggemann, Ralf; Lütkepohl, Helmut - 2000
Alternative modeling strategies for specifying subset VAR models are considered. It is shown that under certain conditions a testing procedure based on t-ratios is equivalent to sequentially eliminating lags that lead to the largest improvement in a prespecified model selection criterion. A...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009583885
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A fractionally integrated model with a mean shift for the US and the UK real oil prices
Gil-Alaña, Luis A. - 2000
In this article we model the log of the U.S. and the U.K. real oil prices in terms of fractionally integrated processes with a mean shift. We use different versions of the tests of Robinson (1994), which have standard null and local limit distributions. The results indicate that if we model the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009611543
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Modeling the US short-term interest rate by mixture autoregressive processes
Lanne, Markku; Saikkonen, Pentti - 2000
A new kind of mixture autoregressive model with GARCH errors is introduced and applied to the U.S. short-term interest rate. According to the diagnostic tests developed in the paper and further informal checks the model is capable of capturing both of the typical characteristics of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009612047
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Forecasting the real output using fractionally integrated techniques
Gil-Alaña, Luis A. - 2001
The annual structure of the real GDP in the UK, France, Germany and Italy is examined in this article by means of fractionally integrated techniques. Using a version of a testing procedure due to Robinson (1994), we show that the series can be specified in terms of I(d) statistical models with d...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009613608
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A generic architecture for hybrid intelligent systems
Jacobsen, Hans-Arno - 1998
The integration of different learning and adaptation techniques in one architecture, to overcome individual limitations and achieve synergetic effects through hybridization or fusion of these techniques, has in recent years contributed to a large number of new intelligent system designs. Most of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009578554