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Fractional cointegration and real exchange rates

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alaña, Luis A. - 2000

This paper uses fractional integration and cointegration in order to model the DM/dollar and the yen/dollar real exchange rates in terms of both monetary and real factors, more specifically real interest rate and labour productivity differentials. We find that whilst the individual series may be...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009611542

Testing the purchasing power parity in pooled systems of error correction models

Herwartz, Helmut; Reimers, Hans-Eggert - 2000

In this paper we test the purchasing power parity for the post Bretton Woods period for 18 main industrial countries. As base currencies we use alternatively the Deutsche mark, the Japanese yen, and the US dollar. We employ error correction models for single countries and on the level of pooled...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009612044

Sources of German unemployment : a structural vector error correction analysis

Brüggemann, Ralf - 2001

parameter restrictions. A cointegration analysis for the unified Germany reveals a long rum relationship between real wages …. We compare these results to results from a standard SVECM and find that, using the Subset VECM reduces estimation … uncertainty. In contrast to previous studies for West Germany, we find that, unemployment is equally determined by technology …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009613616

Was there a regime change in the German monetary transmission mechanism in 1983?

Candelon, Bertrand; Lütkepohl, Helmut - 2000

Recent investigations of the transmission mechanism of German monetary policy arrive at quite different conclusions regarding its stability during the period of monetary targeting by the Bundesbank. In this study small dynamic models for the monetary sector of the German economy are analyzed in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009583433

The empirical determinants of the Euro : short and long run perspectives

Chinn, Menzie David - 2000

estimation methodologies such as single-equation error correction and first differences specifications. A longer term perspective …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009583879

Unemployment and input prices : a fractional cointegration approach

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alaña, Luis A. - 2000

This paper examines the relationship between unemployment, real oil price and real interest rates in Canada. Instead of following the classical approach based on I(0) stationarity or I(1) cointegrating relationships, we use fractional integration/cointegration techniques which allow for the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009614880

Testing stochastic cycles in macroeconomic time series

Gil-Alaña, Luis A. - 2000

A particular version of the tests of Robinson (1994) for testing stochastic cycles in macroeconomic time series is proposed in this article. The tests have a standard limit distribution and are easy to implement in raw time series. A Monte Carlo experiment is conducted, studying the size and the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009611541

A fractionally integrated model with a mean shift for the US and the UK real oil prices

Gil-Alaña, Luis A. - 2000

In this article we model the log of the U.S. and the U.K. real oil prices in terms of fractionally integrated processes with a mean shift. We use different versions of the tests of Robinson (1994), which have standard null and local limit distributions. The results indicate that if we model the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009611543

A fractionally integrated exponential model for UK unemployment

Gil-Alaña, Luis A. - 2000

Fractionally integrated models with the disturbances following a Bloomfield (1973) exponential spectral model are proposed in this article for modelling the U.K. unemployment. This enables us a better understanding of the low-frequency dynamics affecting the series, without relying on any...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009611544

Cointegrating smooth transition regressions with applications to the Asian currency crisis

Saikkonen, Pentti; Choi, In - 2000

This paper studies the smooth transition regression model where regressors are I(1) and errors are I(0). The regressors and errors are assumed to be dependent both serially and contemporaneously. Using the triangular array asymptotics, the nonlinear least squares estimator is shown to be...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009612025

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