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Fractional cointegration and real exchange rates
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alaña, Luis A. - 2000
This paper uses fractional integration and cointegration in order to model the DM/dollar and the yen/dollar real exchange rates in terms of both monetary and real factors, more specifically real interest rate and labour productivity differentials. We find that whilst the individual series may be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009611542
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Forecasting the real output using fractionally integrated techniques
Gil-Alaña, Luis A. - 2001
The annual structure of the real GDP in the UK, France, Germany and Italy is examined in this article by means of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009613608
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Strategies, heuristics and the relevance of risk aversion in a dynamic decision problem
Müller, Wieland - 1999
In this paper I consider a complex decision problem where subjects have to cope with a time horizon of uncertain duration and must update their termination probabilities which depend on stochastic events during "life". First I describe how economic theory suggests to solve the decision problem....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009581111
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Private information, risk aversion, and the evolution of market research
Güth, Sandra; Güth, Werner; Müller, Wieland - 2000
On a homogeneous oligopoly market informed sellers are fully aware of market demand whereas uninformed sellers only know the distribution. We first derive the market results when sellers are risk averse, similarly to Ponssard (1979) who assumed risk neutrality throughout. With the help of these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009612010
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Low-probability insurance decisions : the role of concern
Schade, Christian D.; Kunreuther, Howard; Kaas, Klaus Peter - 2002
On the basis of a real high stakes insurance experiment with small probabilities of losses, we demonstrate that concern … is a more important driver of WTP for insurance than subjective probability estimates when there is ambiguity surrounding … probability insurance "puzzle" well known from the literature, where a part of individuals pays too much and a part nothing for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009621421
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Should smart investors buy funds with high returns in the past?
Palomino, Frédéric; Uhlig, Harald - 2002
Newspapers and weekly magazines catering to the investing crowd often rank funds according to the returns generated in the past. Aside from satisfying sheer curiosity, these numbers are probably also the basis on which investors pick a fund to invest in. In this article, we fully characterize...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009621416
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Worry and the illusion of safety : evidence from a real-objects experiment
Schade, Christian D.; Kunreuther, Howard - 2002
We analyze the impact of an individual's tendency to worry on willingness to pay (WTP) for a protective measure. We report on the results of a controlled experiment with real objects at stake. Worry was measured with the Worry Domains Questionnaire, an instrument determining an individual's...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009621419
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Hedging the standard of living via cost of living index futures
Schulz, Rainer - 2000
People dislike inflation because inflation erodes the real value of future nominal income and wealth. Adjustment of future nominal values via a cost of living index is an appropriate way to handle the problem of real income risk. Nonetheless an important aspect needs more discussion: If markets...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009612030
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Financial price fluctuations in a stock market model with many interacting agents
Horst, Ulrich - 2001
We consider a financial market model with a large number of interacting agents. Investors are heterogeneous in their expectations about the future evolution of an asset price process. Their current expectation is based on the previous states of their "neighbors" and on a random signal about the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009613599
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Framing effects on asset markets : an experimental analysis
Kirchler, Erich; Maciejovsky, Boris; Weber, Martin - 2001
In this paper we investigate four hypotheses which are inconsistent with expected utility theory, but may well be explained by prospect theory. It deals with framing, the non-linearity of subjective probabilities, the disposition effect, and the correspondence of different experimental risk...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009613618