A nonparametric version of the Final Prediction Error (FPE) is proposed for lag selection in nonlinear autoregressive time series. We derive its consistency for both local constant and local linear estimators using a derived optimal bandwidth. Further asymptotic analysis suggests a greater...

Alternative modeling strategies for specifying subset VAR models are considered. It is shown that under certain conditions a testing procedure based on t-ratios is equivalent to sequentially eliminating lags that lead to the largest improvement in a prespecified model selection criterion. A...

The paper considers the derivation of weak discrete time approximations for solutions of stochastic differential equations with time delay. These are suitable for Monte Carlo simulation and allow the computation of expectations for functionals of stochastic delay equations. The suggested...

We consider an additive model with second order interaction terms. It is shown how the components of this model can be estimated using marginal integration, and the asymptotic distribution of the estimators is derived. Moreover, two test statistics for testing the presence of interactions are...

In this paper we study nonparametric estimation and hypothesis testing procedures for the functional coefficient AR (FAR) models of the form Xt = f1(Xt-d)Xt-1 +…+ fp(Xt-d)Xt-p +εt, first proposed by Chen and Tsay (1993). As a direct generalization of the linear AR model, the FAR model is a...

When analyzing the productivity of firms, one may want to compare how the firms transform a set of inputs x (typically labor, energy or capital) into an output y (typically a quantity of goods produced). The economic efficiency of a firm is then defined in terms of its ability of operating close...

Search for an unknown set A,Card(A) = s, of significant variables of a linear model with random IID discrete binary carriers and finitely supported IID noise is studied. Two statistics T1, Ts, based on maximization of Shannon Information (SI) of the corresponding classes of joint empirical...

We propose a method of adaptive estimation of a regression function and which is near optimal in the classical sense of the mean integrated error. At the same time, the estimator is shown to be very sensitive to discontinuities or change-points of the underlying function f or its derivatives....

We show in the paper that the decomposition proposed by Beveridge and Nelson (1981) for models that are integrated of order one can be generalized to seasonal Arima models by means of a partial fraction decomposition. Two equivalent algorithms are proposed to optimally (in the mean squared...