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Fractional integration and business cycle features
Candelon, Bertrand; Gil-Alaña, Luis A. - 2001
We show in this article that fractionally integrated univariate models for GDP may lead to a better replication of business cycle characteristics. We firstly show that the business cycle features are clearly affected by the degree of integration as well as by the other short run components of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009614295
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Fractional integration and the dynamics of UK unemployment
Gil-Alaña, Luis A.; Henry, S. G. B. - 2000
This article is concerned with the dynamic behaviour of UK unemployment. However, instead of using traditional approaches based on I(0) stationary or I(1) (integrated and/or cointegrated) models, we use the fractional integration framework. In doing so, we allow for a more careful study of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009582384
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A fractionally integrated model with a mean shift for the US and the UK real oil prices
Gil-Alaña, Luis A. - 2000
In this article we model the log of the U.S. and the U.K. real oil prices in terms of fractionally integrated processes with a mean shift. We use different versions of the tests of Robinson (1994), which have standard null and local limit distributions. The results indicate that if we model the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009611543
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A fractionally integrated exponential model for UK unemployment
Gil-Alaña, Luis A. - 2000
Fractionally integrated models with the disturbances following a Bloomfield (1973) exponential spectral model are proposed in this article for modelling the U.K. unemployment. This enables us a better understanding of the low-frequency dynamics affecting the series, without relying on any...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009611544
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Multivariate volatility models
Fengler, Matthias R.; Herwartz, Helmut - 2001
Multivariate Volatility Models belong to the class of nonlinear models for financial data. Here we want to focus on multivariate GARCH models. These models assume that the variance of the innovation distribution follows a time dependent process conditional on information which is generated by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009615423
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The empirical determinants of the Euro : short and long run perspectives
Chinn, Menzie David - 2000
is provided by a productivity-based model of the real value of the euro. Some panel regression estimates of the … relationship between intercountry relative productivity differentials and real exchange rates is presented. Using these estimates … to conduct some calculations, one comes to the conclusion that unless drastic changes to productivity trends occur, there …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009583879
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Externalities in the matching of workers and firms in Britain
Burgess, Simon M.; Profit, Stefan - 1998
theory. For example, we find that conditional on local labour market conditions, high unemployment levels in neighbouring …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009576211
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A nonparametric analysis of regional unemployment dynamics in Britain
Bianchi, Marco; Gylfi Zoega - 1997
This paper estimates the probability distribution of relative county unemployment in Britain for the years 1981-1995. We find that the distribution is unimodal in all years, with a falling variance between 1989 and 1994. We use bootstrap methods to determine critical values for the two tails of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009660376
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Adaptive estimation for a time inhomogeneous stochastic-volatility model
Härdle, Wolfgang; Spokojnyj, Vladimir G.; Teyssière, … - 2000
Let a process SI , ... ,ST obey the conditionally heteroskedastic equation St = Vt Et whcrc Et is a random noise and Vt is the volatility coefficient which in turn obeys an autoregression type equation log v t = w + a S t- l + nt with an additional noise nt. We consider the situation which the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009582392
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Fractional cointegration and real exchange rates
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alaña, Luis A. - 2000
exchange rates in terms of both monetary and real factors, more specifically real interest rate and labour productivity …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009611542