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To assess the predictive content of the interest rate term spread for future economic growth, we distinguish short-run from long-run predictability by using two different approaches. First, following Dufour and Renault (1998) a test procedure is proposed to test for causality at different...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009617950
For the Euro 2000 Soccer Championships an experimental asset market was condueted, with traders buying and selling contracts on the winners of individual matches. Market-generated probabilities are compared to professional bet quotas, and factors that are responsible for the quality of the...
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VaR models are related to statistical forecast systems. Within that framework different forecast tasks including Value-at-Risk and shortfall are discussed and motivated. A backtesting method based on the shortfall is developed and applied to VaR forecasts of areal portfolio. The analysis shows...
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which succeeds with high probability. -- Hedging ; superhedging ; Neyman Pearson lemma ; stochastic volatility ; value at …
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We establish a relation between stochastic volatility models and the class of generalized hyperbolic distributions …
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Stochastic Volatility (SV) models are widely used in financial applications. To decide whether standard parametric …
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mean. For the volatility function, i.e., the conditional variance given the past, a multiplicative structure is more … appropriate than an additive one, as the volatility is a positive scale function and a multiplicative model provides a better … additive mean and the multiplicative volatility. The technique used is marginally integrated local polynomial estimation. The …
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