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Political stock markets (PSM) are sometimes seen as substitutes for opinion polls. On the bases of a behavioral model, specific preconditions were drawn out under which manipulation in PSM can weaken this argument. Evidence for manipulation is reported from the data of two separate PSM during...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009614875
because of their different levels of non-diversifiable risk (beta). However, Fama/French (1992) show that the two variables … size and book-to-market ratio capture the cross-sectional variation of US stock returns better than other combinations of …/French for US stock returns is almost the best one in Germany. The book-to-market-ratio turns out to be the variable with highest …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009661022
returns are significantly smaller than returns measured for the remaining days of the week calls the efficiency hypothesis for … returns in the period 1960-79. Within two subsamples obtained from the period 1980-97 the evidence in favour of such effects …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009580468
The Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG) distribution recently introduced by Barndorff-Nielsen (1997) is a promising alternative for modelling financial data exhibiting skewness and fat tails. In this paper we explore the Bayesian estimation of NIG-parameters by Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods. --...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009612011
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001917087
In a meta study of 25 political stock markets conducted in Germany in the last decade we analyze their predictive success. Although the predictions of political stock markets are highly correlated with the corresponding polls, the markets are able to aggregate additional information. One...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009614879
model to two series of FX daily returns on DEM/USD and GBP/USD. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009582392
nondegeneracy condition on the conditional variances of asset returns, we prove the existence of a locally risk-minimizing strategy … incomplete market in discrete time. Under the assumptions of a bounded mean-variance tradeoff, substantial risk and a … under the inclusion of transaction costs: The preceding strategy which is locally risk-minimizing inclusive of transaction …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009576212
We determine the increase of the maximum risk over the minimax risk in the case that the optimally robust estimator for … the relative risk is minimized in the case that the radius is known only to belong to some interval [pr, l'/p] " The … effect of increasing parameter dimension is studied for these models. The minimax increase of relative risk in ease p = 0 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009616786
Credit risk refers to the risk of incurring losses due to unexpected changes in the credit quality of a counterparty or …. We consider individual as well as correlated credit risks. -- compensator ; intensity ; credit risk ; default risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009625799