We show in this article that fractionally integrated univariate models for GDP may lead to a better replication of business cycle characteristics. We firstly show that the business cycle features are clearly affected by the degree of integration as well as by the other short run components of...

We propose in this article a two-step testing procedure of fractional cointegration in macroeconomic time series. It is based on Robinson’s (1994) univariate tests and is similar in spirit to the one proposed by Engle and Granger (1987), testing initially the order of integration of the...

We make use in this article of a testing procedure suggested by Robinson (1994) for testing deterministic seasonality versus seasonal fractional integration. A new test statistic is developed to simultaneously test both, the order of integration of the seasonal component and the need of seasonal...

Most of the empirical studies dealing with international business cycles have disregarded the credibility issues that play an important role in the decision to join or not a monetary union. Most of empirical applications based on asymmetric shocks have failed to account for these aspects. In...

We propose in this article the use of a particular version of the tests of Robinson (1994) for testing seasonally fractionally integrated processes. The tests have standard null and local limit distributions and allow us to test unit and fractional seasonal roots even with different amplitudes...

The annual structure of the real GDP in the UK, France, Germany and Italy is examined in this article by means of fractionally integrated techniques. Using a version of a testing procedure due to Robinson (1994), we show that the series can be specified in terms of I(d) statistical models with d...

This paper entertains the notion that disturbances on the demand side play a central role in our understanding of the Great Depression. In fact, from Euler equation residuals we are able to identify a series of unusually large negative demand shocks that appeared to have hit the U. S. economy...

In this paper I analyse the effects of ignoring level shifts in the data generating process (DGP) on systems cointegration tests that do not accommodate level shifts. I consider two groups of Likelihood Ratio tests based on procedures suggested by Johansen (1988, 1995) and Saikkonen & Lütkepohl...

It is common practice to identify the number and sources of shocks that move implied volatilities across space and time by applying Principal Components Analysis (PCA) to pooled covariance matrices of changes in implied volatilities. This approach, however, is likely to result in a loss of...