To assess the predictive content of the interest rate term spread for future economic growth, we distinguish short-run from long-run predictability by using two different approaches. First, following Dufour and Renault (1998) a test procedure is proposed to test for causality at different...

In this paper, we abandon the stylized median voter and study (i) how distributional tensions can act in many different ways depending on social affinity and on the prospect of upward or downwardmobility of the different income classes, (ii) income distribution dynamics, intergenerational...

The unbiasedness hypothesis -- the joint hypothesis of uncovered interest parity (UIP) and rational expectations -- has been almost universally rejected in studies of exchange rate movements. In contrast to previous studies, which have used short-horizon data, we test this hypothesis using...

The behavior of the dollar/euro exchange rate is modeled using a monetary model of the exchange rate. The econometric analysis is complicated by the short sample span of actual euro data available for analysis. Hence, data on a "synthetic" euro are used. The assumptions underlying the monetary...

This paper uses fractional integration and cointegration in order to model the DM/dollar and the yen/dollar real exchange rates in terms of both monetary and real factors, more specifically real interest rate and labour productivity differentials. We find that whilst the individual series may be...

In this paper we decompose the Serial Correlation Common Feature (SCCF) of Engle and Kozicki (1993) in the frequency domain. A collection of time series is said to share a common cycle if there exists a linear combination of the predicted series with a zero spectral density at some frequency....

A small macroeconomic model is constructed to study the transmission of the monetary policy conducted by the Deutsche Bundesbank (DBB) since the middle of the 1970s. For this purpose quarterly, seasonally unadjusted data for the period from 1975 to 1998 are used, that is, the period until the...

After a temporary period of a fixed exchange rate regime pegging the Polish zloty to the U.S. dollar, Poland established a preannounced crawling peg regime on October 15, 1991. In this system the zloty is tied to a currency basket and devalued with a preannounced monthly rate (rate of crawl). If...

In a complete financial market every contingent claim can be hedged perfectly. In an incomplete market it is possible to stay on the safe side by superhedging. But such strategies may require a large amount of initial capital. Here we study the question what an investor can do who is unwilling...