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Did the Fed surprise the markets in 2001? : a case study for VARs with sign restrictions

Uhlig, Harald - 2001

In 2001, the Fed has lowered interest rates in a series of cuts, starting from 6.5 % at the end of 2000 to 2.0 % by early November. This paper asks, whether the Federal Reserve Bank has been surprising the markets, taking as given the conventional view about the effect of monetary policy shocks....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009618362

Inflation expectations in the EU : results from survey data

Nielsen, Hannah (contributor) - 2003 - [Elektronische Ressource]

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001919145

Forecasting performance of market share attraction models : a comparison of different models assuming that competitors’ actions are forecasts

Klapper, Daniel; Herwartz, Helmut - 1998

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009578563

Testing for short and long-run causality : the case of the yield spread and economic growth

Breitung, Jörg; Candelon, Bertrand - 2001

To assess the predictive content of the interest rate term spread for future economic growth, we distinguish short-run from long-run predictability by using two different approaches. First, following Dufour and Renault (1998) a test procedure is proposed to test for causality at different...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009617950

Self-rated and changes in self-rated health as predictors of mortality : first evidence from german panel data

Schwarze, Johannes; Andersen, Hanfried H.; Anger, Silke - 2002

Background: Studies from several countries have shown that self-rated health is an independent predictor of mortality. However, no empirical evidence exists for Germany so far. We investigate the effectiveness of (i) self-ratings of health by individuals and (ii) changes in self-rated health, as...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009626677

Forecasting sectoral trade growth under flexible exchange rates

Herwartz, Helmut (contributor); Weber, Henning (contributor) - 2003 - [Elektronische Ressource]

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001918993

Price variability and price dispersion in a stable monetary environment : evidence from German retail markets

Fengler, Matthias R.; Winter, Joachim - 2000

We investigate the relationship between inflation and price variation using highly disaggregated, weekly price data for … consumption goods recorded in Germany during 1995, a low inflation period. We find a significant positive correlation between the … correlated with price changes. As the rate of inflation rises, both variability and dispersion become affected. During …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009612033

Unit and fractional roots in the presence of abrupt changes with an application to the Brazilian inflation rate

Gil-Alaña, Luis A. - 2001

We analyse in this article the monthly structure of the Brazilian inflation rate by means of fractionally integrated … techniques. This series is characterized by strong government interventions to bring inflation to a low level. We use a testing …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009615430

Semiparametric estimation and prediction for time series cross sectional data

Bunke, Olaf - 1998

This paper discusses a methodology which uses time series cross sectional datafor the estimation of a time dependent … estimation of additive individual effects and which may essentially improve a traditional panel data analysis. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009578017

How accurate do markets predict the outcome of an event? : the Euro 2000 soccer championships experiment

Schmidt, Carsten; Werwatz, Axel - 2002 - Rev.

For the Euro 2000 Soccer Championships an experimental asset market was condueted, with traders buying and selling contracts on the winners of individual matches. Market-generated probabilities are compared to professional bet quotas, and factors that are responsible for the quality of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009621415

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