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Giesecke, Kay - 2001

We propose a model of correlated multi-firm default with incomplete information. While public bond investors observe issuers' assets and defaults, we suppose that they are not informed about the threshold asset level at which a firm is liquidated. Bond investors form instead a prior on these...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009621426

Compensator-based simulation of correlated defaults

Giesecke, Kay - 2002

considerably over recent years. The risk analysis and valuation of such multi-name structures often relies on simulating the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009624843

Forecasting performance of market share attraction models : a comparison of different models assuming that competitors’ actions are forecasts

Klapper, Daniel; Herwartz, Helmut - 1998

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009578563

The dynamics of implied volatilities : a common principal components approach

Fengler, Matthias R.; Härdle, Wolfgang; Villa, Christophe - 2001

It is common practice to identify the number and sources of shocks that move implied volatilities across space and time by applying Principal Components Analysis (PCA) to pooled covariance matrices of changes in implied volatilities. This approach, however, is likely to result in a loss of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009613597

Tax evasion and risky investments in an intertemporal context : an experimental study

Giese, Sebastian; Hoffmann, Antje - 2000

In this experimental study of tax evasion and its determinants participants earn their income in a complex stochastic intertemporal environment including the possibility to invest into a risky asset. The earned income has to be declared in four tax returns which are randomly verified. If tax...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009583891

Forecasting sectoral trade growth under flexible exchange rates

Herwartz, Helmut (contributor); Weber, Henning (contributor) - 2003 - [Elektronische Ressource]

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001918993

Self-rated and changes in self-rated health as predictors of mortality : first evidence from german panel data

Schwarze, Johannes; Andersen, Hanfried H.; Anger, Silke - 2002

Background: Studies from several countries have shown that self-rated health is an independent predictor of mortality. However, no empirical evidence exists for Germany so far. We investigate the effectiveness of (i) self-ratings of health by individuals and (ii) changes in self-rated health, as...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009626677

Testing for short and long-run causality : the case of the yield spread and economic growth

Breitung, Jörg; Candelon, Bertrand - 2001

To assess the predictive content of the interest rate term spread for future economic growth, we distinguish short-run from long-run predictability by using two different approaches. First, following Dufour and Renault (1998) a test procedure is proposed to test for causality at different...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009617950

Cyclical correlations, credit contagion, and portfolio losses

Giesecke, Kay (contributor); Weber, Stefan (contributor) - 2003 - [Elektronische Ressource]

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001919109

Credit contagion and aggregate losses

Giesecke, Kay; Weber, Stefan - 2002

theory of interacting particle systems. We clarify the structure of the equilibrium joint rating distribution using ergodic … risk. After a proper re-scaling taking care of the heavy tails induced by the contagion dynamics, we provide a normal … losses ; voter model ; Choquet theory ; ergodic decomposition ; re-scaling …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009627288