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Giesecke, Kay; Weber, Stefan - 2002

theory of interacting particle systems. We clarify the structure of the equilibrium joint rating distribution using ergodic … decomposition. We analyze the quantiles of the portfolio loss distribution and in particular their relation to the degree of model … approximation of both the equilibrium rating distribution and the portfolio loss distribution. -- credit contagion ; portfolio …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009627288

Default compensator, incomplete information, and the term structure of credit spreads

Giesecke, Kay - 2001

We provide a framework for the analysis of term structures of credit spreads on corporate bonds in the presence of informational asymmetries. While bond investors observe default incidents, we suppose that they have incomplete information on the firm's assets and/or the threshold asset level at...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009620780

Giesecke, Kay - 2001

We propose a model of correlated multi-firm default with incomplete information. While public bond investors observe issuers' assets and defaults, we suppose that they are not informed about the threshold asset level at which a firm is liquidated. Bond investors form instead a prior on these...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009621426

Compensator-based simulation of correlated defaults

Giesecke, Kay - 2002

The market for derivatives with payoffs contingent on the credit quality of a number of reference entities has grown considerably over recent years. The risk analysis and valuation of such multi-name structures often relies on simulating the performance of the underlying credits. In this paper...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009624843

Credit risk modeling and valuation : an introduction

Giesecke, Kay - 2002

Credit risk refers to the risk of incurring losses due to unexpected changes in the credit quality of a counterparty or issuer. In this paper we give an introduction to the modeling of credit risks and the valuation of credit-risky securities. We consider individual as well as correlated credit...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009625799

Cyclical correlations, credit contagion, and portfolio losses

Giesecke, Kay (contributor); Weber, Stefan (contributor) - 2003 - [Elektronische Ressource]

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001919109

Forecasting performance of market share attraction models : a comparison of different models assuming that competitors’ actions are forecasts

Klapper, Daniel; Herwartz, Helmut - 1998

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009578563

Testing for short and long-run causality : the case of the yield spread and economic growth

Breitung, Jörg; Candelon, Bertrand - 2001

To assess the predictive content of the interest rate term spread for future economic growth, we distinguish short-run from long-run predictability by using two different approaches. First, following Dufour and Renault (1998) a test procedure is proposed to test for causality at different...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009617950

How accurate do markets predict the outcome of an event? : the Euro 2000 soccer championships experiment

Schmidt, Carsten; Werwatz, Axel - 2002 - Rev.

For the Euro 2000 Soccer Championships an experimental asset market was condueted, with traders buying and selling contracts on the winners of individual matches. Market-generated probabilities are compared to professional bet quotas, and factors that are responsible for the quality of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009621415

Forecasting cointegrated VARMA processes

Lütkepohl, Helmut - 1999

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009581104

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