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To assess the predictive content of the interest rate term spread for future economic growth, we distinguish short-run from long-run predictability by using two different approaches. First, following Dufour and Renault (1998) a test procedure is proposed to test for causality at different...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009617950
rate and shows the interaction of the main variables of the monetary sector. -- Cointegration analysis ; impulse response …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009616780
The concept of integrated stochastic processes is widely used in empirical macroeconomics; and cointegration analysis … considerable empirical method for extracting information from monetary aggregates for monetary policy purposes. -- cointegration …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009620770
cointegration tests that do not accommodate level shifts. I consider two groups of Likelihood Ratio tests based on procedures … rank smaller than one suggested by procedures which accommodate the shifts. -- Systems cointegration tests ; Level shifts …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009626747
following the classical approach based on I(0) stationarity or I(1) cointegrating relationships, we use fractional integration/cointegration … three variables are I(1). But we only find cointegration in the presence of autocorrelated disturbances, which means that … opposed to classical cointegration, which implies long memory and slow reversion to equilibrium. This suggests that an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009614880
between German dual-class shares. Only in 4 out of 12 cases, the threshold ECM yields a substantial improvement of fit. In … other cases, the evidence for nonlinearity is rather weak and the threshold ECM fails to outperform the linear model. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009581105
the null hypothesis of no cointegration against alternatives which are fractionally cointegrated. Monte Carlo simulations … (EMH) ; Present Value (PV) models ; fractional cointegration …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009582383
This article is concerned with the dynamic behaviour of UK unemployment. However, instead of using traditional approaches based on I(0) stationary or I(1) (integrated and/or cointegrated) models, we use the fractional integration framework. In doing so, we allow for a more careful study of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009582384
policy was satisfied. -- cointegration analysis ; monetary policy ; Markov regime switching analysis ; money demand ; vector …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009583433
-variate time series modelling using aggregated data of all eleven European Monetary Union member states. A cointegration analysis …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009583887