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Structural vector autoregressive models and monetary policy analysis

Holtemöller, Oliver - 2002

In this paper, the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model is used to analyze short-run and contemporaneous relationships between monetary aggregates and other macroeconomic variables. This requires imposing restrictions on the correlation structure of the VAR residuals. Different...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009620773

Did the Fed surprise the markets in 2001? : a case study for VARs with sign restrictions

Uhlig, Harald - 2001

In 2001, the Fed has lowered interest rates in a series of cuts, starting from 6.5 % at the end of 2000 to 2.0 % by early November. This paper asks, whether the Federal Reserve Bank has been surprising the markets, taking as given the conventional view about the effect of monetary policy shocks....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009618362

Lag selection in subset VAR models with an application to a US monetary system

Brüggemann, Ralf; Lütkepohl, Helmut - 2000

Alternative modeling strategies for specifying subset VAR models are considered. It is shown that under certain conditions a testing procedure based on t-ratios is equivalent to sequentially eliminating lags that lead to the largest improvement in a prespecified model selection criterion. A...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009583885

Further VAR evidence for the effectiveness of a credit channel in Germany

Holtemöller, Oliver - 2002

In this paper, the empirical relevance of the credit channel for the explanation of monetary policy transmission in Germany during the period of monetary targeting from 1975 to 1998 is analyzed. While existing studies of the credit channel rely mostly on the analysis of monetary policy effects...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009626675

Comparison of bootstrap confidence intervals for impulse responses of German monetary systems

Benkwitz, Alexander; Lütkepohl, Helmut; Wolters, Jürgen - 1999

It is argued that standard impulse response analysis based on vector autoregressive models has a number of shortcomings. Although the impulse responses are estimated quantities, measures for sampling variability such as confidence intervals are often not provided. If confidence intervals are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009580485

Bootstrapping impulse responses in VAR analyses

Lütkepohl, Helmut - 2000

Because the parameters of vector autoregressive processes are often difficult to interpret directly, econometricians use quantities derived from the parameters to disentangle the relationships between the variables. Bootstrap methods are often used for inference on the derived quantities....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009583428

Volatility estimates of the short term interest rate with an application to German data

Dankenbring, Henning - 1998

This paper proposes a procedure for testing alternative specifications of the short term interest rate's dynamics which takes into account that according to some restrictions the interest rate is nonstationary, i.e. the traditional test statistic has a non-standard distribution. Moreover, we do...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009578570

The response of long-term interest rates to news about monetary policy actions : empirical evidence for the US and Germany

Nautz, Dieter; Wolters, Jürgen - 1998

We reexamine the expectations theory of the term structure focusing on the question how monetary policy actions indicated by changes in the very short rate affect long-term interest rates. Our main point is that the expectations hypothesis implies that very long rates should only react to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009578577

Testing for short and long-run causality : the case of the yield spread and economic growth

Breitung, Jörg; Candelon, Bertrand - 2001

To assess the predictive content of the interest rate term spread for future economic growth, we distinguish short-run from long-run predictability by using two different approaches. First, following Dufour and Renault (1998) a test procedure is proposed to test for causality at different...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009617950

Estimating yield curves by Kernel smoothing methods

Linton, Oliver; Mammen, Enno; Nielsen, Jens Perch; … - 1998

We introduce a new method for the estimation of discount functions, yield curves and forward curves from government … although we do show how to impose various restrictions in the estimation. Our method is based on Kernel smoothing and is … our estimation procedure is iterative, rather like the backfitting method of estimating non-parametric models. We …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009580489

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