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Dynamic decision structure and risk taking

Eichberger, Jürgen; Güth, Werner; Müller, Wieland - 1999

This paper investigates the behaviour in repeated decision situations. The experimental study shows that subjects show low or no risk-aversion, but put very high value on the opportunity to sell the lottery in every stage of the decision problem. There is evidence that risk attitudes depend on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009582412

Simultaneous over- and underconfidence : evidence from experimental asset markets

Maciejovsky, Boris; Kirchler, Erich - 2001

In this paper individual overconfidence within the context of an experimental asset market is investigated. Overall, 72 participants traded one risky asset on six markets of 12 participants each. The results indicate that individuals were not generally overconfident. Moreover, overconfidence was...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009614297

How accurate do markets predict the outcome of an event? : the Euro 2000 soccer championships experiment

Schmidt, Carsten; Werwatz, Axel - 2002 - Rev.

For the Euro 2000 Soccer Championships an experimental asset market was condueted, with traders buying and selling contracts on the winners of individual matches. Market-generated probabilities are compared to professional bet quotas, and factors that are responsible for the quality of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009621415

Fairness in the mail and opportunism in the internet : a newspaper experiment on ultimatum bargaining

Güth, Werner; Schmidt, Carsten; Sutter, Matthias - 2001

On May 11, 2001, readers of the Berliner Zeitung were invited to participate in an ultimatum bargaining experiment … bargaining ; newspaper (or internet) experiment ; distribution conflicts …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009614299

Temporal aggregation and causality in multiple time series models

Breitung, Jörg; Swanson, Norman R. - 1998

In this paper we characterize what has sometimes been referred to in the literature as instantaneous causality, by examining the consequences of temporal aggregation in (possibly) Granger causal systems of variables. Our approach is to compare the concept of contemporaneous correlation due to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009578029

Testing for short and long-run causality : the case of the yield spread and economic growth

Breitung, Jörg; Candelon, Bertrand - 2001

To assess the predictive content of the interest rate term spread for future economic growth, we distinguish short-run from long-run predictability by using two different approaches. First, following Dufour and Renault (1998) a test procedure is proposed to test for causality at different...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009617950

Structural equation models for finite mixtures : simulation results and empirical applications

Temme, Dirk; Williams, John R.; Hildebrandt, Lutz - 2002

Unobserved heterogeneity is a serious but often neglected problem in structural equation modelling (SEM) challenging the validity of many empirical results. Recently, a finite mixture approach to SEM has been proposed to resolve this problem but until now only a few studies analyse the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009621412

Manipulation in political stock markets : preconditions and evidence

Hansen, Jan; Schmidt, Carsten; Strobel, Martin - 2001

Political stock markets (PSM) are sometimes seen as substitutes for opinion polls. On the bases of a behavioral model, specific preconditions were drawn out under which manipulation in PSM can weaken this argument. Evidence for manipulation is reported from the data of two separate PSM during...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009614875

Predictive accuracy of political stock markets : empirical evidence from a European perspective

Berlemann, Michael; Schmidt, Carsten - 2001

In a meta study of 25 political stock markets conducted in Germany in the last decade we analyze their predictive success. Although the predictions of political stock markets are highly correlated with the corresponding polls, the markets are able to aggregate additional information. One...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009614879

The local power of some unit root tests for panel data

Breitung, Jörg - 1999

do not require a bias correction. The results of a Monte Carlo experiment suggest that avoiding the bias can improve the … (1993) and Im, Pesaran and Shin (1997) suggest bias adjusted t-statistics. Such corrections are necessary to account for the … affected by two different terms. The first term represents the asymptotic effect on the bias due the detrending method and the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009581103