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Through trial & error to collusion
Huck, Steffen; Oechssler, Joerg; Normann, Hans-Theo - 1999
In this note we study a very simple trial & error learning process in the context of a Cournot oligopoly. Without any knowledge of the payoff functions players increase, respectively decrease, their quantity by one unit as long as this leads to higher profits. We show that despite the absence of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009580461
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Does cascade behavior in information cascades reflect Bayesian updating? : an experimental study
Oberhammer, Clemens; Stiehler, Andreas - 2001
Updating behavior in cascade experiments is usually investigated on the basis of urn prediction. But urn predictions alone can only provide a very rough information on individual updating behavior. Therefore, we implement a BDM mechanism. Subjects have to submit maximum prices that they are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009613603
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Simultaneous over- and underconfidence : evidence from experimental asset markets
Maciejovsky, Boris; Kirchler, Erich - 2001
-calibrated as well as over- and underconfident during some trading periods with respect to the accuracy of their predictions, while …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009614297
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Forecasting performance of market share attraction models : a comparison of different models assuming that competitors’ actions are forecasts
Klapper, Daniel; Herwartz, Helmut - 1998
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009578563
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Testing for short and long-run causality : the case of the yield spread and economic growth
Breitung, Jörg; Candelon, Bertrand - 2001
is proposed to test for causality at different forecast horizons. Second, the framework of Geweke (1982) and Hosaya (1991 …) is used to construct a simple test for causality in the frequency domain. This methodology is applied to investigate the … low frequencies only. -- Causality ; Time series ; Frequency domain ; Prediction …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009617950
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How accurate do markets predict the outcome of an event? : the Euro 2000 soccer championships experiment
Schmidt, Carsten; Werwatz, Axel - 2002 - Rev.
For the Euro 2000 Soccer Championships an experimental asset market was condueted, with traders buying and selling contracts on the winners of individual matches. Market-generated probabilities are compared to professional bet quotas, and factors that are responsible for the quality of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009621415
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Forecasting cointegrated VARMA processes
Lütkepohl, Helmut - 1999
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009581104
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Backtesting beyond VaR
Härdle, Wolfgang; Stahl, Gerhard - 1999
VaR models are related to statistical forecast systems. Within that framework different forecast tasks including Value-at-Risk and shortfall are discussed and motivated. A backtesting method based on the shortfall is developed and applied to VaR forecasts of areal portfolio. The analysis shows...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009582401
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Learning to bid : an experimental study of bid function adjustments in auctions and fair division games
Güth, Werner; Ivanova-Stenzel, Radosveta; Königstein, … - 1999
sequencing structure of game types, game rules do matter, and directional learning theory offers a partial explanation for bid …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009581102
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Robust learning experiments : evidence for learning and deliberation
Güth, Werner - 2000
Robust learning experiments confront participants with structurally different decision environments which they encounter, furthermore, repeatedly. Since the decision format does not depend on the rules (of game), forward looking deliberation (the shadow of the future) can be detected by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009612041