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How accurate do markets predict the outcome of an event? : the Euro 2000 soccer championships experiment

Schmidt, Carsten; Werwatz, Axel - 2002 - Rev.

For the Euro 2000 Soccer Championships an experimental asset market was condueted, with traders buying and selling contracts on the winners of individual matches. Market-generated probabilities are compared to professional bet quotas, and factors that are responsible for the quality of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009621415

Financial price fluctuations in a stock market model with many interacting agents

Horst, Ulrich - 2001

We consider a financial market model with a large number of interacting agents. Investors are heterogeneous in their expectations about the future evolution of an asset price process. Their current expectation is based on the previous states of their "neighbors" and on a random signal about the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009613599

Ergodic fluctuations in a stock market model with interacting agents : the mean field case

Horst, Ulrich - 1999

We consider a financial market model with interacting agents and study the long run behaviour of both aggregate behaviour and equilibrium prices. Investors are heterogeneous in their price expectations and they get stochastic signals about the "mood" of the market described by the empirical...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009582400

Weekday dependence of German stock market returns

Herwartz, Helmut - 1999

The so-called 'Monday effect ' has been found for various stock markets of the world. The empirical finding that Monday returns are significantly smaller than returns measured for the remaining days of the week calls the efficiency hypothesis for pricing processes operating on stock markets into...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009580468

Semiparametric bootstrap approach to hypothesis tests and confidence intervals for the hurst coefficient

Hall, Peter; Härdle, Wolfgang; Kleinow, Torsten; … - 1999

A major application of rescaled adjusted range analysis (RS analysis) is the study of price fluctuations in financial markets. There, the value of the Hurst constant, H, in a time series may be interpreted as an indicator of the irregularity of the price of a commodity, currency or similar...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009581110

Measures for the structure of clustering and admissibilities of its algorithm

Takeuchi, Akinobu; Yadohisa, Hiroshi; Inada, Koichi - 2001

The problem of selecting a clustering algorithm from the myriad of algorithms has been discussed in recent years. Many … clustering result. New admissibilities of the clustering algorithm and a new agglomerative hierarchical clustering algorithm are …. -- structure ; admissibility ; AHCA (agglomerative hierarchical clustering algorithm) …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009615418

The dynamics of implied volatilities : a common principal components approach

Fengler, Matthias R.; Härdle, Wolfgang; Villa, Christophe - 2001

It is common practice to identify the number and sources of shocks that move implied volatilities across space and time by applying Principal Components Analysis (PCA) to pooled covariance matrices of changes in implied volatilities. This approach, however, is likely to result in a loss of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009613597

Manipulation in political stock markets : preconditions and evidence

Hansen, Jan; Schmidt, Carsten; Strobel, Martin - 2001

Political stock markets (PSM) are sometimes seen as substitutes for opinion polls. On the bases of a behavioral model, specific preconditions were drawn out under which manipulation in PSM can weaken this argument. Evidence for manipulation is reported from the data of two separate PSM during...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009614875

Forecasting performance of market share attraction models : a comparison of different models assuming that competitors’ actions are forecasts

Klapper, Daniel; Herwartz, Helmut - 1998

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009578563

Forecasting cointegrated VARMA processes

Lütkepohl, Helmut - 1999

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009581104