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Testing of fractional cointegration in macroeconomic time series

Gil-Alaña, Luis A. - 2000

We propose in this article a two-step testing procedure of fractional cointegration in macroeconomic time series. It is … article. -- Fractional cointegration ; Long memory …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009612018

Unemployment and input prices : a fractional cointegration approach

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alaña, Luis A. - 2000

following the classical approach based on I(0) stationarity or I(1) cointegrating relationships, we use fractional integration/cointegration … three variables are I(1). But we only find cointegration in the presence of autocorrelated disturbances, which means that … opposed to classical cointegration, which implies long memory and slow reversion to equilibrium. This suggests that an …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009614880

Testing stochastic cycles in macroeconomic time series

Gil-Alaña, Luis A. - 2000

A particular version of the tests of Robinson (1994) for testing stochastic cycles in macroeconomic time series is proposed in this article. The tests have a standard limit distribution and are easy to implement in raw time series. A Monte Carlo experiment is conducted, studying the size and the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009611541

Fractional cointegration and real exchange rates

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alaña, Luis A. - 2000

This paper uses fractional integration and cointegration in order to model the DM/dollar and the yen/dollar real …. -- fractional integration ; fractional cointegration ; real exchange rates …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009611542

A fractionally integrated model with a mean shift for the US and the UK real oil prices

Gil-Alaña, Luis A. - 2000

In this article we model the log of the U.S. and the U.K. real oil prices in terms of fractionally integrated processes with a mean shift. We use different versions of the tests of Robinson (1994), which have standard null and local limit distributions. The results indicate that if we model the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009611543

A fractionally integrated exponential model for UK unemployment

Gil-Alaña, Luis A. - 2000

Fractionally integrated models with the disturbances following a Bloomfield (1973) exponential spectral model are proposed in this article for modelling the U.K. unemployment. This enables us a better understanding of the low-frequency dynamics affecting the series, without relying on any...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009611544

Testing for unit roots in time series with level shifts

Saikkonen, Pentti; Lütkepohl, Helmut - 1999

Tests for unit roots in univariate time series with level shifts are proposed and investigated. The level shift is assumed to occur at a known time. It may be a simple one-time shift which can be captured by a dummy variable or it may have a more general form which can be modeled by some general...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009580487

Money and prices : an I(2) analysis for the euro area

Holtemöller, Oliver - 2002

The concept of integrated stochastic processes is widely used in empirical macroeconomics; and cointegration analysis … considerable empirical method for extracting information from monetary aggregates for monetary policy purposes. -- cointegration …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009620770

Nonlinear error correction and the efficient market hypothesis : the case of German dual-class shares

Breitung, Jörg; Wulff, Christian - 1999

The efficient market hypothesis implies that asset prices cannot be cointegrated. On the other hand, arbitrage processes prevent prices of fundamentally related assets from drifting far away. An attractive model that reconciles these two conflicting facts is the nonlinear error correction...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009581105

Modelling seasonality with fractionally integrated processes

Gil-Alaña, Luis A. - 2000

We propose in this article the use of a particular version of the tests of Robinson (1994) for testing seasonally fractionally integrated processes. The tests have standard null and local limit distributions and allow us to test unit and fractional seasonal roots even with different amplitudes...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009582382

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