Daily returns of financial assets are frequently found to exhibit positive autocorrelation at lag 1. When specifying a linear AR(l) conditional mean, one may ask how this predictability affects option prices. We investigate the dependence of option prices on autoregressive dynamics under...

In this work, we introduce a smoothed influence function that constitute a theoretical tool for studying the outliers robustness properties of a large class of nonparametric estimators. With this tool, we first show the nonrobustness of the Nadaraya-Watson estimator of regression. Then we show...

It is common practice to identify the number and sources of shocks that move implied volatilities across space and time by applying Principal Components Analysis (PCA) to pooled covariance matrices of changes in implied volatilities. This approach, however, is likely to result in a loss of...

Using option prices the expectations of the market participants concerning the underlying asset can be extracted as well as the uncertainty surrounding these expectations. In this paper a mixture of lognormal density functions will be assumed to analyze options on three-month Euribor futures for...

A primary goal in modelling the dynamics of implied volatility surfaces (IVS) aims at reducing complexity. For this purpose one fits the IVS each day and applies a principal component analysis using a functional norm. This approach, however, neglects the degenerated string structure of the...

We propose a new estimator for nonparametric regression based on local likelihood estimation using an estimated error score function obtained from the residuals of a preliminary nonparametric regression. We show that our estimator is asymptotically equivalent to the infeasible local maximum...

We propose in this article the use of a particular version of the tests of Robinson (1994) for testing seasonally fractionally integrated processes. The tests have standard null and local limit distributions and allow us to test unit and fractional seasonal roots even with different amplitudes...

We make use in this article of a testing procedure suggested by Robinson (1994) for testing deterministic seasonality versus seasonal fractional integration. A new test statistic is developed to simultaneously test both, the order of integration of the seasonal component and the need of seasonal...

We propose in this article a two-step testing procedure of fractional cointegration in macroeconomic time series. It is based on Robinson’s (1994) univariate tests and is similar in spirit to the one proposed by Engle and Granger (1987), testing initially the order of integration of the...

In the sequel of its seminal application in Davidson, Hendry, Srba and Yeo (1978) the single equation error correction model has been widely used in empirical practice. Providing a clear distinction between short- and long-run dynamics this model allows OLS-methods to be as efficient as...