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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009578563
To assess the predictive content of the interest rate term spread for future economic growth, we distinguish short-run from long-run predictability by using two different approaches. First, following Dufour and Renault (1998) a test procedure is proposed to test for causality at different...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009617950
For the Euro 2000 Soccer Championships an experimental asset market was condueted, with traders buying and selling contracts on the winners of individual matches. Market-generated probabilities are compared to professional bet quotas, and factors that are responsible for the quality of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009621415
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009581104
VaR models are related to statistical forecast systems. Within that framework different forecast tasks including Value-at-Risk and shortfall are discussed and motivated. A backtesting method based on the shortfall is developed and applied to VaR forecasts of areal portfolio. The analysis shows...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009582401
When people decide about saving and consumption across the various periods of their life time they take into account their life expectancy when comparing present and future needs and resources for satisfying them. The experimental design, applied at two sites (Humboldt-University at Berlin and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009578010
functions of the attributes for the competitive brands, whereas that of the MNL formulation is guided by the choice theory of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009612039
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001919370
This paper discusses a methodology which uses time series cross sectional datafor the estimation of a time dependent regression function depending on explanatory variables and for the prediction of values of the dependent variable. The methodology assumes independent observations and is based on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009578017
Background: Studies from several countries have shown that self-rated health is an independent predictor of mortality. However, no empirical evidence exists for Germany so far. We investigate the effectiveness of (i) self-ratings of health by individuals and (ii) changes in self-rated health, as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009626677