Similar Search Results

Did the Fed surprise the markets in 2001? : a case study for VARs with sign restrictions

Uhlig, Harald - 2001

In 2001, the Fed has lowered interest rates in a series of cuts, starting from 6.5 % at the end of 2000 to 2.0 % by early November. This paper asks, whether the Federal Reserve Bank has been surprising the markets, taking as given the conventional view about the effect of monetary policy shocks....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009618362

Inflation expectations in the EU : results from survey data

Nielsen, Hannah (contributor) - 2003 - [Elektronische Ressource]

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001919145

Combining rational choice and evolutionary dynamics : the indirect evolutionary approach

Königstein, Manfred; Müller, Wieland - 1999

In this study we propose a formal framework for the indirect evolutionary approach as initiated by Güth and Yaari (1992). It allows to endogenize preferences and to study their evolution. We define two-player indirect evolutionary games with observable types and show how to incorporate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009580475

On the regulation of social norms

Kübler, Dorothea - 2000

A model is developed to understand how norms can be influenced by "norm entrepreneurs", e.g. lawmakers, government agencies, unions etc. Two instruments of influencing the dynamics of normfollowing behavior are analyzed, namely transforming the (monetary) incentives and changing the meaning or...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009583884

From full to bounded rationality : the limits of unlimited rationality

Güth, Werner; Kliemt, Hartmut - 2001

choice making. We illustrate why this role is not being fulfilled well by standard models of full rationality and that … theories of bounded rationality are needed not only for better predictions, but also for developing better advice. Our main … point is that one cannot succeed here without studying how theories of bounded rationality causally influence the behavior …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009612562

Semiparametric estimation and prediction for time series cross sectional data

Bunke, Olaf - 1998

This paper discusses a methodology which uses time series cross sectional datafor the estimation of a time dependent regression function depending on explanatory variables and for the prediction of values of the dependent variable. The methodology assumes independent observations and is based on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009578017

Forecasting performance of market share attraction models : a comparison of different models assuming that competitors’ actions are forecasts

Klapper, Daniel; Herwartz, Helmut - 1998

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009578563

Testing for short and long-run causality : the case of the yield spread and economic growth

Breitung, Jörg; Candelon, Bertrand - 2001

To assess the predictive content of the interest rate term spread for future economic growth, we distinguish short-run from long-run predictability by using two different approaches. First, following Dufour and Renault (1998) a test procedure is proposed to test for causality at different...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009617950

How accurate do markets predict the outcome of an event? : the Euro 2000 soccer championships experiment

Schmidt, Carsten; Werwatz, Axel - 2002 - Rev.

For the Euro 2000 Soccer Championships an experimental asset market was condueted, with traders buying and selling contracts on the winners of individual matches. Market-generated probabilities are compared to professional bet quotas, and factors that are responsible for the quality of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009621415

Self-rated and changes in self-rated health as predictors of mortality : first evidence from german panel data

Schwarze, Johannes; Andersen, Hanfried H.; Anger, Silke - 2002

Background: Studies from several countries have shown that self-rated health is an independent predictor of mortality. However, no empirical evidence exists for Germany so far. We investigate the effectiveness of (i) self-ratings of health by individuals and (ii) changes in self-rated health, as...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009626677