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The dynamics of implied volatilities : a common principal components approach
Fengler, Matthias R.; Härdle, Wolfgang; Villa, Christophe - 2001
maturities and moneyness dimension is neglected. In this paper we propose to estimate the implied volatility surface at each … point in time nonparametrically and to analyze the implied volatility surface slice by slice with a common principal … study a p variate random vector of k groups, say the "volatility smile" at p different grid points of moneyness for k …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009613597
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How accurate do markets predict the outcome of an event? : the Euro 2000 soccer championships experiment
Schmidt, Carsten; Werwatz, Axel - 2002 - Rev.
For the Euro 2000 Soccer Championships an experimental asset market was condueted, with traders buying and selling contracts on the winners of individual matches. Market-generated probabilities are compared to professional bet quotas, and factors that are responsible for the quality of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009621415
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Forecasting cointegrated VARMA processes
Lütkepohl, Helmut - 1999
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009581104
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Backtesting beyond VaR
Härdle, Wolfgang; Stahl, Gerhard - 1999
VaR models are related to statistical forecast systems. Within that framework different forecast tasks including Value-at-Risk and shortfall are discussed and motivated. A backtesting method based on the shortfall is developed and applied to VaR forecasts of areal portfolio. The analysis shows...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009582401
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Manipulation in political stock markets : preconditions and evidence
Hansen, Jan; Schmidt, Carsten; Strobel, Martin - 2001
Political stock markets (PSM) are sometimes seen as substitutes for opinion polls. On the bases of a behavioral model, specific preconditions were drawn out under which manipulation in PSM can weaken this argument. Evidence for manipulation is reported from the data of two separate PSM during...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009614875
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Forecasting performance of market share attraction models : a comparison of different models assuming that competitors’ actions are forecasts
Klapper, Daniel; Herwartz, Helmut - 1998
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009578563
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Fitting the smile revisited : a least squares kernel estimator for the implied volatility surface
Fengler, Matthias R. (contributor); Wang, Qihua (contributor) - 2003 - [Elektronische Ressource]
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001919426
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Multivariate volatility models
Fengler, Matthias R.; Herwartz, Helmut - 2001
Multivariate Volatility Models belong to the class of nonlinear models for financial data. Here we want to focus on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009615423
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Nonlinear GARCH models for highly persistent volatility
Lanne, Markku; Saikkonen, Pentti - 2002
In this paper we study new nonlinear GARCH models mainly designed for time series with highly persistent volatility …. For such series, conventional GARCH models have often proved unsatisfactory because they tend to exaggerate volatility … related to relatively infrequent changes in regime. U sing the theory of Markov chains we provide sufficient conditions for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009621424
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Asymptotic equivalence of discretely observed geometric Brownian motion to a Gaussian shift
Butucea, Cristina; Nussbaum, Michael - 1999
Financial models consider often stochastic processes satisfying certain differential equations. We show that the solution of a particular geometric Brownian motion observed in discrete time is asymptotically equivalent with a Gaussian white noise model.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009580459