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The dynamics of implied volatilities : a common principal components approach

Fengler, Matthias R.; Härdle, Wolfgang; Villa, Christophe - 2001

maturities and moneyness dimension is neglected. In this paper we propose to estimate the implied volatility surface at each … point in time nonparametrically and to analyze the implied volatility surface slice by slice with a common principal … study a p variate random vector of k groups, say the "volatility smile" at p different grid points of moneyness for k …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009613597

Manipulation in political stock markets : preconditions and evidence

Hansen, Jan; Schmidt, Carsten; Strobel, Martin - 2001

Political stock markets (PSM) are sometimes seen as substitutes for opinion polls. On the bases of a behavioral model, specific preconditions were drawn out under which manipulation in PSM can weaken this argument. Evidence for manipulation is reported from the data of two separate PSM during...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009614875

How accurate do markets predict the outcome of an event? : the Euro 2000 soccer championships experiment

Schmidt, Carsten; Werwatz, Axel - 2002 - Rev.

For the Euro 2000 Soccer Championships an experimental asset market was condueted, with traders buying and selling contracts on the winners of individual matches. Market-generated probabilities are compared to professional bet quotas, and factors that are responsible for the quality of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009621415

Forecasting performance of market share attraction models : a comparison of different models assuming that competitors’ actions are forecasts

Klapper, Daniel; Herwartz, Helmut - 1998

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009578563

Forecasting cointegrated VARMA processes

Lütkepohl, Helmut - 1999

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009581104

Backtesting beyond VaR

Härdle, Wolfgang; Stahl, Gerhard - 1999

VaR models are related to statistical forecast systems. Within that framework different forecast tasks including Value-at-Risk and shortfall are discussed and motivated. A backtesting method based on the shortfall is developed and applied to VaR forecasts of areal portfolio. The analysis shows...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009582401

Financial price fluctuations in a stock market model with many interacting agents

Horst, Ulrich - 2001

We consider a financial market model with a large number of interacting agents. Investors are heterogeneous in their expectations about the future evolution of an asset price process. Their current expectation is based on the previous states of their "neighbors" and on a random signal about the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009613599

Semiparametric diffusion estimation and application to a stock market index

Härdle, Wolfgang; Kleinow, Torsten; Korostelev, … - 2001

The analysis of diffusion processes in financial models is crucially dependent on the form of the drift and diffusion coefficient functions. A methodology is proposed for estimating and testing coefficient functions for ergodic diffusions that are not directly observable. It is based on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009613611

Multivariate volatility models

Fengler, Matthias R.; Herwartz, Helmut - 2001

Multivariate Volatility Models belong to the class of nonlinear models for financial data. Here we want to focus on …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009615423

Nonlinear GARCH models for highly persistent volatility

Lanne, Markku; Saikkonen, Pentti - 2002

In this paper we study new nonlinear GARCH models mainly designed for time series with highly persistent volatility …. For such series, conventional GARCH models have often proved unsatisfactory because they tend to exaggerate volatility … related to relatively infrequent changes in regime. U sing the theory of Markov chains we provide sufficient conditions for …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009621424