The market for derivatives with payoffs contingent on the credit quality of a number of reference entities has grown considerably over recent years. The risk analysis and valuation of such multi-name structures often relies on simulating the performance of the underlying credits. In this paper...

Political stock markets (PSM) are sometimes seen as substitutes for opinion polls. On the bases of a behavioral model, specific preconditions were drawn out under which manipulation in PSM can weaken this argument. Evidence for manipulation is reported from the data of two separate PSM during...

In a meta study of 25 political stock markets conducted in Germany in the last decade we analyze their predictive success. Although the predictions of political stock markets are highly correlated with the corresponding polls, the markets are able to aggregate additional information. One...

Problems arising in Finance have become a significant source of new developments in Stochastic Analysis. We discuss some recent case studies, in particular some decomposition and representation theorems which are motivated by problems of hedging derivatives and of intertemporal consumption choice.

In der vorliegenden Untersuchung betrachten wir die Grundgesamtheit der deutschen Unternehmen, von denen im Zeitraum 1956 bis 1998 Stamm- und stimmrechtslose Vorzugsaktien börsennotiert waren. Zwischen beiden Aktiengattungen besteht mit durchschnittlich 17,2 Prozentpunkten ein ökonomisch und...

In a complete financial market every contingent claim can be hedged perfectly. In an incomplete market it is possible to stay on the safe side by superhedging. But such strategies may require a large amount of initial capital. Here we study the question what an investor can do who is unwilling...

In this note the unobserved component approach underlying the software package SEATS is compared with the Beveridge-Nelson type of decomposition for seasonal time series. The main strength of the SEATS approach lies in the appealing model formulation and the careful specification and adjustment...

We emphasize the importance of properly identifying the long-run relations underlying the monetary model of the exchange rate. The separate estimation of long-run money demands leads to a "structural" error correction equation which allows an interpretation of the various channels affecting the...