In this paper individual overconfidence within the context of an experimental asset market is investigated. Overall, 72 participants traded one risky asset on six markets of 12 participants each. The results indicate that individuals were not generally overconfident. Moreover, overconfidence was...

In this paper we investigate four hypotheses which are inconsistent with expected utility theory, but may well be explained by prospect theory. It deals with framing, the non-linearity of subjective probabilities, the disposition effect, and the correspondence of different experimental risk...

In this paper I consider a complex decision problem where subjects have to cope with a time horizon of uncertain duration and must update their termination probabilities which depend on stochastic events during "life". First I describe how economic theory suggests to solve the decision problem....

The experimental situation presents a complex stochastic intertemporal allocation problem. First, two initial chance moves select one of three possible termination probabilities which then determines whether "life" lasts 3,4,5, or 6 periods. Compared to Anderhub et al. (1997) participants are...

Updating behavior in cascade experiments is usually investigated on the basis of urn prediction. But urn predictions alone can only provide a very rough information on individual updating behavior. Therefore, we implement a BDM mechanism. Subjects have to submit maximum prices that they are...

We extend the analysis of the intertemporal utility maximization problem for Hindy-Huang-Kreps utilities reported in Bank and Riedel (1998) to the stochastic case. Existence and uniqueness of optimal consumption plans are established under arbitrary convex portfolio constraints, including both...

Consider estimating the mean of a normal distribution with known variance, when that mean is known to lie in a bounded interval. In a decision-theoretic framework we study finite sample properties of a class of nonlinear' estimators. These estimators are based on thresholding techniques which...

We prove existence of an Arrow-Debreu equilibrium when agents' preferences exhibit local substitution in the sense of Hindy, Huang, and Kreps (1992). Efficient allocations and supporting price functionals are identified and characterized. Under Hindy Huang Kreps preferences, equilibrium price...

Many consumption prices are highly volatile. It would certainly overburden our cognitive system to fully adjust to all these changes. Households therefore often rely on simple heuristics when deciding what to consume, e.g. in the form of a constant budget share for a specific consumption...