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Härdle, Wolfgang; Stahl, Gerhard - 1999

VaR models are related to statistical forecast systems. Within that framework different forecast tasks including Value-at-Risk and shortfall are discussed and motivated. A backtesting method based on the shortfall is developed and applied to VaR forecasts of areal portfolio. The analysis shows...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009582401

Quantile-VaR is the wrong measure to quantify market risk for regulatory purposes

Jaschke, Stefan R. - 2001

Starting from the objective of banking supervision - to minimize the overall costs of banking to the general public - we show that the current standard of quantifying market risk is flawed. It is perfectly aligned with the interests of banks' shareholders and management, but not with the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009614286

Coherent risk measures, valuation bounds, and (my,p)-portfolio optimization

Jaschke, Stefan R.; Küchler, Uwe - 1999

This paper presents a general theory that works out the relation between coherent risk measures, valuation bounds, and … theory presented seems to fill a gap between arbitrage valuation on the one hand and single agent utility maximization or … full-fledged equilibrium theory on the other hand. "Coherent" valuation bounds strike a balance in that the bounds can be …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009581108

Forecasting performance of market share attraction models : a comparison of different models assuming that competitors’ actions are forecasts

Klapper, Daniel; Herwartz, Helmut - 1998

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009578563

Forecasting cointegrated VARMA processes

Lütkepohl, Helmut - 1999

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009581104

How accurate do markets predict the outcome of an event? : the Euro 2000 soccer championships experiment

Schmidt, Carsten; Werwatz, Axel - 2002 - Rev.

For the Euro 2000 Soccer Championships an experimental asset market was condueted, with traders buying and selling contracts on the winners of individual matches. Market-generated probabilities are compared to professional bet quotas, and factors that are responsible for the quality of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009621415

Testing for short and long-run causality : the case of the yield spread and economic growth

Breitung, Jörg; Candelon, Bertrand - 2001

To assess the predictive content of the interest rate term spread for future economic growth, we distinguish short-run from long-run predictability by using two different approaches. First, following Dufour and Renault (1998) a test procedure is proposed to test for causality at different...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009617950

Net based spreadsheets in quantitative finance

Aydinli, Gökhan - 2002

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009624849

Forecasting sectoral trade growth under flexible exchange rates

Herwartz, Helmut (contributor); Weber, Henning (contributor) - 2003 - [Elektronische Ressource]

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001918993

Semiparametric estimation and prediction for time series cross sectional data

Bunke, Olaf - 1998

This paper discusses a methodology which uses time series cross sectional datafor the estimation of a time dependent regression function depending on explanatory variables and for the prediction of values of the dependent variable. The methodology assumes independent observations and is based on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009578017

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