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Simultaneous over- and underconfidence : evidence from experimental asset markets

Maciejovsky, Boris; Kirchler, Erich - 2001

In this paper individual overconfidence within the context of an experimental asset market is investigated. Overall, 72 participants traded one risky asset on six markets of 12 participants each. The results indicate that individuals were not generally overconfident. Moreover, overconfidence was...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009614297

How accurate do markets predict the outcome of an event? : the Euro 2000 soccer championships experiment

Schmidt, Carsten; Werwatz, Axel - 2002 - Rev.

For the Euro 2000 Soccer Championships an experimental asset market was condueted, with traders buying and selling contracts on the winners of individual matches. Market-generated probabilities are compared to professional bet quotas, and factors that are responsible for the quality of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009621415

Financial price fluctuations in a stock market model with many interacting agents

Horst, Ulrich - 2001

We consider a financial market model with a large number of interacting agents. Investors are heterogeneous in their expectations about the future evolution of an asset price process. Their current expectation is based on the previous states of their "neighbors" and on a random signal about the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009613599

Framing effects on asset markets : an experimental analysis

Kirchler, Erich; Maciejovsky, Boris; Weber, Martin - 2001

In this paper we investigate four hypotheses which are inconsistent with expected utility theory, but may well be … explained by prospect theory. It deals with framing, the non-linearity of subjective probabilities, the disposition effect, and …) found little correspondence between different experimental risk elicitation methods. -- Prospect Theory ; Framing …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009613618

Bayesian estimation of NIG-parameters by Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods

Lillestøl, Jostein - 2000 - Rev.

The Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG) distribution recently introduced by Barndorff-Nielsen (1997) is a promising alternative for modelling financial data exhibiting skewness and fat tails. In this paper we explore the Bayesian estimation of NIG-parameters by Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods. --...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009612011

Should smart investors buy funds with high returns in the past?

Palomino, Frédéric; Uhlig, Harald - 2002

Newspapers and weekly magazines catering to the investing crowd often rank funds according to the returns generated in the past. Aside from satisfying sheer curiosity, these numbers are probably also the basis on which investors pick a fund to invest in. In this article, we fully characterize...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009621416

Hedging the standard of living via cost of living index futures

Schulz, Rainer - 2000

People dislike inflation because inflation erodes the real value of future nominal income and wealth. Adjustment of future nominal values via a cost of living index is an appropriate way to handle the problem of real income risk. Nonetheless an important aspect needs more discussion: If markets...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009612030

Hedging and portfolio optimization in illiquid financial markets

Bank, Peter; Baum, Dietmar - 2002

analysis relies on the non-linear integration theory of such semimartingale families. The Itô-Wentzell formula is used to prove …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009625800

Random times at which insiders can have free lunches

Imkeller, Peter - 2001

We consider models of time continuous financial markets with a regular trader and an insider who are able to invest into one risky asset. The insider's additional knowledge consists in his ability to stop a random time which is inaccessible to the regular trader, such as the last passage of a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009614874

ExploRing persistence in financial time series

Lee, David - 2000

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009611548

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