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Bayesian estimation of NIG-parameters by Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods
Lillestøl, Jostein - 2000 - Rev.
alternative for modelling financial data exhibiting skewness and fat tails. In this paper we explore the Bayesian estimation of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009612011
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Animal spirits, technology shocks and the business cycle
Weder, Mark - 1997
able to. The introduction of animal spirits generates a low negative contemporaneous correlation of hours and productivity …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009659067
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The great demand depression
Weder, Mark - 2001
This paper entertains the notion that disturbances on the demand side play a central role in our understanding of the Great Depression. In fact, from Euler equation residuals we are able to identify a series of unusually large negative demand shocks that appeared to have hit the U. S. economy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009614288
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Did the Fed surprise the markets in 2001? : a case study for VARs with sign restrictions
Uhlig, Harald - 2001
In 2001, the Fed has lowered interest rates in a series of cuts, starting from 6.5 % at the end of 2000 to 2.0 % by early November. This paper asks, whether the Federal Reserve Bank has been surprising the markets, taking as given the conventional view about the effect of monetary policy shocks....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009618362
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Lag selection in subset VAR models with an application to a US monetary system
Brüggemann, Ralf; Lütkepohl, Helmut - 2000
Alternative modeling strategies for specifying subset VAR models are considered. It is shown that under certain conditions a testing procedure based on t-ratios is equivalent to sequentially eliminating lags that lead to the largest improvement in a prespecified model selection criterion. A...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009583885
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Sources of German unemployment : a structural vector error correction analysis
Brüggemann, Ralf - 2001
, productivity and unemployment which is interpreted as a wage setting relation. From a Subset VECM we identify meaningful structural …. We compare these results to results from a standard SVECM and find that, using the Subset VECM reduces estimation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009613616
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Forecasting the real output using fractionally integrated techniques
Gil-Alaña, Luis A. - 2001
The annual structure of the real GDP in the UK, France, Germany and Italy is examined in this article by means of fractionally integrated techniques. Using a version of a testing procedure due to Robinson (1994), we show that the series can be specified in terms of I(d) statistical models with d...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009613608
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The empirical determinants of the Euro : short and long run perspectives
Chinn, Menzie David - 2000
estimation methodologies such as single-equation error correction and first differences specifications. A longer term perspective … is provided by a productivity-based model of the real value of the euro. Some panel regression estimates of the … relationship between intercountry relative productivity differentials and real exchange rates is presented. Using these estimates …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009583879
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Indeterminacy in the small open economy Ramsey growth model
Weder, Mark - 1999
This paper constructs a small open economy version of the two sector Benhabib-Farmer (1996) indeterminacy model. It can be shown that sunspot equilibria arise at significantly lower magnitude of increasing returns to scale than in the original dosed economy model. Furthermore, if a mix of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009580484
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Bayes estimates in multivariate semiparametric linear models
Bunke, Olaf - 2002
Bayes estimates are derived in multivariate linear models with unknown distribution. The prior distribution is defined using a Dirichlet prior for the unknown error distribution and a ormal-Wishart distribution for the parameters. The posterior distribution for the parameters is determined and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009626682