Russia wants to realise a high degree of self-regulated stability in the Arctic. Moscow considers this necessary for overcoming the many problems and obstacles to development that are linked to its ambitious plans as well as the consequences of climate change. The regression of sea ice is...

Although electricity grids shape and define both political and economic spaces, the geopolitical significance of electricity remains underestimated. In political communities and beyond, such grids establish new channels for projecting geopolitical influence and new spheres of influence. In the...

Turkey's neo-Eurasianist ideologues describe themselves as “Kemalist Eurasianists”. They argue that “Eurasianism calls for a cultural, military, political and commercial alliance with Turkey’s eastern neighbors, notably Russia, Iran, the Turkic countries of Central Asia, and even...

Economic stagnation and demographic change in Russia are putting intense pressure on the government budget. Tax revenues have been declining since the late 2000s. Meanwhile, the oil dependency of Russia’s budget has in­creased significantly. This became patently clear when the oil price...

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 also called the sovereignty of Belarus into question. The country served as a launching pad for the attack, thus becoming a co-aggressor. However, relations between Minsk and Moscow changed the longer the war has lasted. Belarusian...

In the European summer of 2027, the world faces a threat, not only to human health but also to biological diversity and food security. An alarming scenario is emerging: The rapidly thawing permafrost in the Russian tundra has released an unknown form of anthrax that is primarily transmitted by...

In its war of attrition against Ukraine, the Kremlin is counting on outnumbering the enemy over a long period in terms of both hardware and personnel. Following the unpopular partial mobilisation in autumn 2022, the recruitment of contract soldiers and volunteer fighters was stepped up...

In den letzten zwei Jahren hat Belarus Trägersysteme erworben, welche Minsk die Fähigkeit zum Einsatz von Nuklearwaffen verschaffen. Zwar behaupten Moskau und Minsk, dass sich mittlerweile russische Atomsprengköpfe auf belarussischem Boden befinden. Gesichert ist dies allerdings nicht, und...

Surprise and jubilation in the United Nation Security Council (UNSC): 2028 begins with a bang. The permanent members of the body declare that they will voluntarily renounce their right of veto in cases of mass atrocities. This self-limitation, achieved after a long struggle, would have been...