This paper contains a description of a small quarterly forecasting model for the Finnish economy. We evaluate the … forecasting properties of the model by means of stochastic simulation involving both the endogenous and exogenous variables of the … model. The simulations allow us to identify and quantify the main sources of forecasting uncertainty. We are also able to …

To develop forecasting procedures with a forward-looking dynamic general equilibrium model, we built a small New … that information into the macro economic forecast. We propose a method of transforming the model in forecasting use in such … called for in the proposed forecasting procedures, which clearly is an advantage from point of view of transparency in …

This paper provides an answer to the question of how to improve the forecasting performance of a macro model to better … account for economic developments and how to evaluate the forecasting uncertainty. The main tool in this assessment is …

countries – Italy, France and Germany – utilising only current and past financial market information. The longer the forecasting … analysed countries, the overall forecasting performance of the tracking portfolios is the best for the United States, and the … method employed here clearly outperforms the forecasting performance of a more traditional VAR approach. …

time of forecasting, are useful in assessing future forecast errors. …

We propose simulation-based forecasting methods for the noncausal vector autoregressive model proposed by Lanne and … simulation procedures. Simulation experiments demonstrate that gains in forecasting accuracy are achieved by using the correct … of U.S. inflation and marginal cost turns out superior to the best-fitting conventional causal VAR model in forecasting …

, and forecasting. The papers apply techniques related to the analysis of unit roots and cointegration methods. <p> The … first paper deals with consumption theories and formulates an error-correction forecasting model for consumption. A single … variables can be in forecasting variables such as consumption and inflation. <p> The first paper on asset prices, is based on …

chosen treatment of overnight returns affects the results. For example, the selection of the best volatility forecasting …