, built for policy simulation and forecasting. In constructing the model, consistent treatment of expectations is emphasized …

of conduct, related markups and intensity of competition. We develop a cointegrated VAR (vector autoregression) based …

We estimate the interdependence between US monetary policy and the S&P 500 using structural VAR methodology. A solution … shocks are orthogonal to the information set in the VAR model and can be interpreted as non-fundamental shocks. We attribute …

This paper contains a description of a small quarterly forecasting model for the Finnish economy. We evaluate the … forecasting properties of the model by means of stochastic simulation involving both the endogenous and exogenous variables of the … model. The simulations allow us to identify and quantify the main sources of forecasting uncertainty. We are also able to …

To develop forecasting procedures with a forward-looking dynamic general equilibrium model, we built a small New … that information into the macro economic forecast. We propose a method of transforming the model in forecasting use in such … called for in the proposed forecasting procedures, which clearly is an advantage from point of view of transparency in …

This paper provides an answer to the question of how to improve the forecasting performance of a macro model to better … account for economic developments and how to evaluate the forecasting uncertainty. The main tool in this assessment is …

method employed here clearly outperforms the forecasting performance of a more traditional VAR approach. … countries – Italy, France and Germany – utilising only current and past financial market information. The longer the forecasting … analysed countries, the overall forecasting performance of the tracking portfolios is the best for the United States, and the …