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Updating the euro area Phillips curve: the slope has increased

Oinonen, Sami; Paloviita, Maritta - Suomen Pankki - 2014

This paper examines recent changes in the cyclicality of euro area inflation. We estimate time-varying parameters for the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve using three alternative proxies for the output gap. Our analysis, which is based on the state-space method with Kalman filtering...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011099548

The Time-Varying NAIRU and Potential Output in Finland

Rasi, Chris-Marie; Viikari, Jan-Markus - Suomen Pankki - 1998

This study presents statistical estimates of Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment, or NAIRU, and potential … 1982:1 - 1996:4. According to the basic idea underlying these methods, noisy estimates of the unobserved NAIRU and … estimation of the NAIRU and potential output time seria along with other parameters. According to the results NAIRU and potential …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005648849

Inflation dynamics in the euro area and the role of expectations: further results

Paloviita, Maritta - Suomen Pankki - 2004

This paper examines the empirical performance of the New Keynesian Phillips curve and its hybrid specification in the euro area. Instead of imposing rational expectations, direct measures, ie OECD forecasts, are used as empirical proxies for economic agents´ inflation expectations. Real...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005207149

Inflation and output growth uncertainty in individual survey expectations

Paloviita, Maritta; Viren, Matti - Suomen Pankki - 2012

This paper studies uncertainty using the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters’ data. We consider both inflation and real GDP growth forecasts at the micro level and explore forecast uncertainty using two alternative measures, i.e. conventional standard deviation of individual point forecasts...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010699288

Comparing alternative Phillips curve specifications: European results with survey-based expectations

Paloviita, Maritta - Suomen Pankki - 2005

This paper examines inflation dynamics in Europe. Econometric specification tests with pooled European data are used to compare the empirical performance of the New Classical, New Keynesian and Hybrid specifications of the Phillips curve. Instead of imposing any specific form of expectations...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005419685

Inflation dynamics in the euro area and the role of expectations

Paloviita, Maritta - Suomen Pankki - 2002

This paper assesses empirically the two main alternative specifications of the output gap-based Phillips relation for the euro area: the older expectations-augmented Phillips curve and the new Keynesian Phillips curve. The main focus is on the role of expectations and comparison of the two...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005648890

The role of expectations in the inflation process in the euro area

Paloviita, Maritta; Virén, Matti - Suomen Pankki - 2005

This paper analyses the role of inflation expectations in the euro area. On one hand, the question is how inflation expectations affect both inflation and output, and, on the other hand, how inflation expectations reflect developments in these variables. The analyses make use of a simple VAR...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005648940

The use of real time information in Phillips curve relationships for the euro area

Paloviita, Maritta; Mayes, David - Suomen Pankki - 2004

The dynamics of the Phillips Curve in New Keynesian, Expectations Augmented and Hybrid forms are extremely sensitive to the choice, timing and restrictions on variables. An important element of the debate revolves round what information decision-makers took into account at the time and round...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005649019

How have inflation dynamics changed over time? Evidence from the euro area and USA

Oinonen, Sami; Paloviita, Maritta; Vilmi, Lauri - Suomen Pankki - 2013

This paper analyzes euro area and U.S. inflation dynamics since the beginning of the 1990s by estimating New Keynesian hybrid Phillips curves with time-varying parameters. We measure inflation expectations by subjective forecasts from Consensus Economics survey and so do not assume rational...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010818992

The role of expectations in euro area inflation dynamics

Paloviita, Maritta - Suomen Pankki - 2005

This paper examines empirical performance of three different Phillips curve specifications in the euro area. Instead of imposing rational expectations, direct measures, ie OECD forecasts, are used to proxy economic agents’ inflation expectations. Real marginal costs are measured in three...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008774211

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