uncertainty is closely related to the output growth uncertainty. In forming expectations, individual forecasters seem to behave …

. Revisions of expectations generally lead to larger forecast errors. Subjective uncertainty measures, which are available at the … time of forecasting, are useful in assessing future forecast errors. …

This paper examines aggregated inflation expectations based on the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (ECB SPF). We … not cause systematic distortions to aggregated survey information. However, micro level analysis of expectations would …

of imposing any specific form of expectations formation, di-rect measures, ie Consensus Economics survey data are used to … proxy economic agents’ inflation expecta-tions. According to the results, the New Classical Phillips curve has satisfactory … forward-looking, and inflation cannot instantaneously adjust to changes in expecta-tions. Consequently, even allowing for …

imposing rational expectations, direct measures, ie OECD forecasts, are used to proxy economic agents’ inflation expectations …. Real marginal costs are measured in three different ways. The results suggest that with directly measured expectations the … non-rationality in expectations, a lagged inflation term enters the New Keynesian Phillips curve for European inflation …

euro area. Instead of imposing rational expectations, direct measures, ie OECD forecasts, are used as empirical proxies for … economic agents´ inflation expectations. Real marginal costs are proxied by three different measures. The results suggest that … OECD inflation forecasts perform relatively well as a proxy for inflation expectations in the euro area, since under this …

the euro area: the older expectations-augmented Phillips curve and the new Keynesian Phillips curve. The main focus is on … the role of expectations and comparison of the two theories. Instead of imposing rational expectations, an alternative and … in principle less restrictive approach is applied to operationalising expectations. Direct measures of inflation …

This paper analyses the role of inflation expectations in the euro area. On one hand, the question is how inflation … expectations affect both inflation and output, and, on the other hand, how inflation expectations reflect developments in these … variables. The analyses make use of a simple VAR model of inflation, inflation expectations and the output gap that allows for …

We propose simulation-based forecasting methods for the noncausal vector autoregressive model proposed by Lanne and … simulation procedures. Simulation experiments demonstrate that gains in forecasting accuracy are achieved by using the correct … of U.S. inflation and marginal cost turns out superior to the best-fitting conventional causal VAR model in forecasting …