This paper re-examines the VAR evidence on the price puzzle and proposes a new theoretical interpretation. Using actual data and two identification strategies based on zero restrictions and model-consistent sign restrictions, we find that the positive response of prices to a monetary policy...

We estimate a new-Keynesian DSGE model with the cost channel to assess its ability to replicate the price puzzle ie the inflationary impact of a monetary policy shock typically arising in VAR analysis. In order to correctly identify the monetary policy shock, we distinguish between a standard...

To develop forecasting procedures with a forward-looking dynamic general equilibrium model, we built a small New-Keynesian model and calibrated it to euro area data. It was essential in this context that we allowed for long-run growth in GDP. We brought additional asset price equations based on...

The paper investigates the relationship between relative price movements and changes in the aggregate price level using monthly data on Finland’s Consumer Price Index and its components from the period covering the past eight and a half years. This was a period of very low inflation. The rate...

This paper reconsiders the formal estimation of bank risk using the variability of the profit function. In our model, point estimates of the variability of profits are derived from a model where this variability is endogenous to other bank characteristics, such as capital and liquidity. We...

In his celebrated 1966 Econometrica article, Granger first hypothesized that there is a ‘typical’ spectral shape for an economic variable. This ‘typical’ shape implies decreasing levels of energy as frequency increases, which in turn implies an extremely long cycle in economic...

On 3 July 2015, SUERF organized its sixth joint conference with the Bank of Finland in Helsinki on the subject of liquidity and market efficiency. The one-day program consisted of an opening speech, six presentations, including three keynotes, and a lunchtime address. The present SUERF Study...

We assess the performance of optimal Taylor-type interest rate rules, with and without reaction to financial variables, in stabilizing the macroeconomy following financial shocks. We use a DSGE model that comprises both a loan and a bond market, which best suits the contemporary structure of the...

This paper studies the gain from using money as an indicator when monetary policy in made under data uncertainty. We use a forward and backward looking model, calibrated for the euro area. The policymaker cannot completely observe the state of the economy. Money reveals some of the private...

This paper demonstrates that the adaptive learning approach to modelling private sector expectations can be used as an equilibrium selection mechanism in a natural-rate monetary model with unemployment persistence. In particular, it is shown that only one of the two rational expectations...