Showing 1 - 10 of 38
This study presents a framework for extracting long-run GDP growth and inflation expectations from financial market data on a real-time basis. The framework uses information from both stock and bond markets. It builds on a dividend discount model of stock valuation and on a linearized...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005207154
The present study examines empirically the inflation dynamics of the euro area. The focus of the analysis is on the role of expectations in the inflation process. In six articles we relax rationality assumption and proxy expectations directly using OECD forecasts or Consensus Economics survey...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008774215
This paper focuses on the determination of inflation expectations. The following two questions are exam-ined: How much do inflation expectations reflect different economic and institutional regime shifts and in which way do inflation expectations adjust to past inflation? The basic idea in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005648996
This document reports the currently used term structure estimation method at the Bank of Finland and discusses interpretation of the results it generates. We start by introducing two widely used term structure estimation methods: the Cubic Spline Function method and the Nelson-Siegel approach....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005771133
This paper examines inflation dynamics in Europe. Econometric specification tests with pooled European data are used to compare the empirical performance of the New Classical, New Keynesian and Hybrid specifications of the Phillips curve. Instead of imposing any specific form of expectations...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005419685
Expectations about the future are central for determination of current macroeconomic outcomes and the formulation of monetary policy. Recent literature has explored ways for supplementing the benchmark of rational expectations with explicit models of expectations formation that rely on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005419689
Using New Keynesian models, we compare Friedman’s k-percent money supply rule to optimal interest rate setting, with respect to determinacy, stability under learning and optimality. We first review the recent literature. Open-loop interest rate rules are subject to indeterminacy and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005423681
To develop forecasting procedures with a forward-looking dynamic general equilibrium model, we built a small New-Keynesian model and calibrated it to euro area data. It was essential in this context that we allowed for long-run growth in GDP. We brought additional asset price equations based on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005423701
We investigate both the rational explosive inflation paths studied by McCallum (2001) and the classification of fiscal and monetary policies proposed by Leeper (1991) for stability under learning of rational expectations equilibria (REE). Our first result is that the fiscalist REE in the model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005423711
This paper examines recent changes in the cyclicality of euro area inflation. We estimate time-varying parameters for the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve using three alternative proxies for the output gap. Our analysis, which is based on the state-space method with Kalman filtering...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011099548