Showing 1 - 10 of 109
This paper examines recent changes in the cyclicality of euro area inflation. We estimate time-varying parameters for … become steeper since 2012. Thus, the current low level of inflation and persistently negative output gap increase the risk … that euro area inflation will stay below the monetary policy target for an extended period. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011099548
Output gaps for ten European countries and the USA are estimated based on a CES production function with input augmentation in technological progress. The substitution parameter is estimated from the coefficients of the labour and capital demand functions. Estimation is carried out using...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005190775
of the two. We compare the accounting definition of deficit with the economic definition which takes inflation into …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005207145
optimise. Under discretionary monetary policy the size of the inflation bias depends on the fiscal policy regime. Using the … with the alternative fiscal policy rules, and inflation and output persistence reflects the economic data. With the deficit …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005207156
We investigate both the rational explosive inflation paths studied by McCallum (2001) and the classification of fiscal …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005423711
results in more persistent inflation as well as output responses to shocks, than without the supply-side channel. We also … discuss the different monetary and fiscal policy regimes and their implication on the stability of inflation and output. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005648851
. This was a period of very low inflation. The rate of growth in the aggregate price level was occasionally very close to … inflation. The declining prices cannot, however, be explained by lack of demand or any generalized deflationary tendencies … develops a new method for looking at the composition of inflation and illustrating how relative price dynamics interact with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005648879
This paper analyses the role of inflation expectations in the euro area. On one hand, the question is how inflation … expectations affect both inflation and output, and, on the other hand, how inflation expectations reflect developments in these … variables. The analyses make use of a simple VAR model of inflation, inflation expectations and the output gap that allows for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005648940
This paper analyzes euro area and U.S. inflation dynamics since the beginning of the 1990s by estimating New Keynesian … hybrid Phillips curves with time-varying parameters. We measure inflation expectations by subjective forecasts from Consensus … results indicate that in both economic areas the inflation dynamics have steadily become more forward-looking over time. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010818992
of U.S. inflation and marginal cost turns out superior to the best-fitting conventional causal VAR model in forecasting … inflation. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010818995