Showing 1 - 10 of 14
To promote the financial stability, there is a need for an early warning system to signal the formation of asset price misalignments. This research provides two novel methods to accomplish this task. Results in this research shows that the conventional unit root tests in modified forms can be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010818810
This paper provides an early warning indicator for bubbles in financial markets. The indicator is based on traditional unit root tests, more precisely on the augmented Dickey-Fuller test and may be used in a repeated manner with rolling samples. The performance of the indicator is tested...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010611666
In this article we provide a summary of empirical results obtained in several economics and operations research papers that attempt to explain, predict, or suggest remedies for financial crises or banking defaults, as well as outlines of the methodologies used. We analyze financial and economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008509430
This paper studies uncertainty using the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters’ data. We consider both inflation and real GDP growth forecasts at the micro level and explore forecast uncertainty using two alternative measures, i.e. conventional standard deviation of individual point forecasts...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010699288
time of forecasting, are useful in assessing future forecast errors. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010818991
We propose simulation-based forecasting methods for the noncausal vector autoregressive model proposed by Lanne and … simulation procedures. Simulation experiments demonstrate that gains in forecasting accuracy are achieved by using the correct … of U.S. inflation and marginal cost turns out superior to the best-fitting conventional causal VAR model in forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010818995
, and forecasting. The papers apply techniques related to the analysis of unit roots and cointegration methods. <p> The … first paper deals with consumption theories and formulates an error-correction forecasting model for consumption. A single … variables can be in forecasting variables such as consumption and inflation. <p> The first paper on asset prices, is based on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008774212
chosen treatment of overnight returns affects the results. For example, the selection of the best volatility forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008774236
models. It also studies the importance of three main risk premia models in explaining and forecasting the risk premia in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008838417
To develop forecasting procedures with a forward-looking dynamic general equilibrium model, we built a small New … that information into the macro economic forecast. We propose a method of transforming the model in forecasting use in such … called for in the proposed forecasting procedures, which clearly is an advantage from point of view of transparency in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005423701