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Updating the euro area Phillips curve: the slope has increased
Oinonen, Sami; Paloviita, Maritta - Suomen Pankki - 2014
This paper examines recent changes in the cyclicality of euro area inflation. We estimate time-varying parameters for … become steeper since 2012. Thus, the current low level of inflation and persistently negative output gap increase the risk … that euro area inflation will stay below the monetary policy target for an extended period. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011099548
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Inflation and output growth uncertainty in individual survey expectations
Paloviita, Maritta; Viren, Matti - Suomen Pankki - 2012
This paper studies uncertainty using the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters’ data. We consider both inflation and … inflation uncertainty has a negative impact on economic activity by decreasing output growth and increasing inflation and … real GDP growth forecasts at the micro level and explore forecast uncertainty using two alternative measures, i …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010699288
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Analysis of forecast errors in micro-level survey data
Paloviita, Maritta; Viren, Matti - Suomen Pankki - 2014
inflation and real GDP growth forecasts in the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. For comparison, inflation forecasts in …. Revisions of expectations generally lead to larger forecast errors. Subjective uncertainty measures, which are available at the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010818991
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Analysis of aggregated inflation expectations based on the ECB SPF survey
Oinonen, Sami; Paloviita, Maritta - Suomen Pankki - 2014
also be useful, especially in times of wide disagreement across forecasters and high levels of inflation uncertainty. …This paper examines aggregated inflation expectations based on the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (ECB SPF). We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011095060
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Volatility transfers between cycles: A theory of why the "great moderation" was more mirage than moderation
Crowley, Patrick; Hughes Hallett, Andrew - Suomen Pankki - 2014
increase in inflation aversion and/or a reduction to a commitment to output stabilization could have caused this volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010945112
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Financial and economic downturns in OECD countries
Haavio, Markus; Mendicino, Caterina; Punzi, Maria Teresa - Suomen Pankki - 2013
This article empirically studies the linkages between financial variable downturns and economic recessions. We present evidence that real asset prices tend to lead real cycles, while loan-to-GDP and loan-to-deposit ratios lag them. Using a probit analysis, we document that downturns in real...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010722795
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Inflation expectations and regime shifts in the euro area
Virén, Matti - Suomen Pankki - 2005
This paper focuses on the determination of inflation expectations. The following two questions are exam-ined: How much … do inflation expectations reflect different economic and institutional regime shifts and in which way do inflation … expectations adjust to past inflation? The basic idea in the analysis is an assump-tion that inflation expectations do not …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005648996
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Output gaps and technological progress in European Monetary Union
Dimitz, Maria Antoinette - Suomen Pankki - 2001
Output gaps for ten European countries and the USA are estimated based on a CES production function with input augmentation in technological progress. The substitution parameter is estimated from the coefficients of the labour and capital demand functions. Estimation is carried out using...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005190775
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Stability consequences of fiscal policy rules
Railavo, Jukka - Suomen Pankki - 2004
of the two. We compare the accounting definition of deficit with the economic definition which takes inflation into …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005207145
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Monetary consequences of alternative fiscal policy rules
Railavo, Jukka - Suomen Pankki - 2004
optimise. Under discretionary monetary policy the size of the inflation bias depends on the fiscal policy regime. Using the … with the alternative fiscal policy rules, and inflation and output persistence reflects the economic data. With the deficit …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005207156