This paper studies uncertainty using the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters’ data. We consider both inflation and … real GDP growth forecasts at the micro level and explore forecast uncertainty using two alternative measures, i … are based on subjective probability distributions of survey respondents. Our analysis indicates that individual inflation …

This paper analyses the role of inflation expectations in the euro area. On one hand, the question is how inflation … expectations affect both inflation and output, and, on the other hand, how inflation expectations reflect developments in these … variables. The analyses make use of a simple VAR model of inflation, inflation expectations and the output gap that allows for …

This paper analyzes euro area and U.S. inflation dynamics since the beginning of the 1990s by estimating New Keynesian … hybrid Phillips curves with time-varying parameters. We measure inflation expectations by subjective forecasts from Consensus … results indicate that in both economic areas the inflation dynamics have steadily become more forward-looking over time. We …

This paper examines recent changes in the cyclicality of euro area inflation. We estimate time-varying parameters for … become steeper since 2012. Thus, the current low level of inflation and persistently negative output gap increase the risk … that euro area inflation will stay below the monetary policy target for an extended period. …

of U.S. inflation and marginal cost turns out superior to the best-fitting conventional causal VAR model in forecasting …We propose simulation-based forecasting methods for the noncausal vector autoregressive model proposed by Lanne and … simulation procedures. Simulation experiments demonstrate that gains in forecasting accuracy are achieved by using the correct …

policy shock, we distinguish between a standard policy rate shifter and a shock to trend inflation ie the time …-varying inflation target set by the Fed. While offering some statistical support to the cost channel, our estimated model clearly … implies a negative inflation reaction to a tightening of monetary policy. We offer a discussion of the possible sources of …

economic agents´ inflation expectations. Real marginal costs are proxied by three different measures. The results suggest that … OECD inflation forecasts perform relatively well as a proxy for inflation expectations in the euro area, since under this … approach the European inflation process can be modeled using the forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve. However …

pulling inflation down while low unemployment can be much more effective in driving it up. Downturns in the economy are both …

This paper examines inflation dynamics in Europe. Econometric specification tests with pooled European data are used to … proxy economic agents’ inflation expecta-tions. According to the results, the New Classical Phillips curve has satisfactory … Classical and Hybrid Phillips curves. We interpret our results as indicating that the European inflation process is not purely …

This study presents statistical estimates of Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment, or NAIRU, and potential … quarterly data on inflation, rate of unemployment, aggregate production and a number of auxiliary variables covering the period …