This paper studies uncertainty using the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters’ data. We consider both inflation and … real GDP growth forecasts at the micro level and explore forecast uncertainty using two alternative measures, i … are based on subjective probability distributions of survey respondents. Our analysis indicates that individual inflation …

This paper analyses the role of inflation expectations in the euro area. On one hand, the question is how inflation … expectations affect both inflation and output, and, on the other hand, how inflation expectations reflect developments in these … variables. The analyses make use of a simple VAR model of inflation, inflation expectations and the output gap that allows for …

This paper examines recent changes in the cyclicality of euro area inflation. We estimate time-varying parameters for … become steeper since 2012. Thus, the current low level of inflation and persistently negative output gap increase the risk … that euro area inflation will stay below the monetary policy target for an extended period. …

This paper analyzes euro area and U.S. inflation dynamics since the beginning of the 1990s by estimating New Keynesian … hybrid Phillips curves with time-varying parameters. We measure inflation expectations by subjective forecasts from Consensus … results indicate that in both economic areas the inflation dynamics have steadily become more forward-looking over time. We …

of U.S. inflation and marginal cost turns out superior to the best-fitting conventional causal VAR model in forecasting …We propose simulation-based forecasting methods for the noncausal vector autoregressive model proposed by Lanne and … simulation procedures. Simulation experiments demonstrate that gains in forecasting accuracy are achieved by using the correct …

policy shock, we distinguish between a standard policy rate shifter and a shock to trend inflation ie the time …-varying inflation target set by the Fed. While offering some statistical support to the cost channel, our estimated model clearly … implies a negative inflation reaction to a tightening of monetary policy. We offer a discussion of the possible sources of …

This study presents statistical estimates of Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment, or NAIRU, and potential … quarterly data on inflation, rate of unemployment, aggregate production and a number of auxiliary variables covering the period …

in principle less restrictive approach is applied to operationalising expectations. Direct measures of inflation … expectations, ie OECD forecasts, are used as empirical proxies of economic agents’ inflation expectations. The main interest is in … the euro area as a whole, although potential heterogeneity of inflation dynamics is also examined across eleven EMU …

Secretariat forecast data for inflation expectations. <p> A very important result for monetary policy are the large differences … potential output), its impact on inflation is positive, but, with a negative output gap, the deflationary impact is very small … Netherlands and Spain. <p> An important result of the study is the strong negative influence of inflation uncertainty on GDP in …