We investigate both the rational explosive inflation paths studied by McCallum (2001) and the classification of fiscal … and monetary policies proposed by Leeper (1991) for stability under learning of rational expectations equilibria (REE …

This paper analyses the role of inflation expectations in the euro area. On one hand, the question is how inflation … expectations affect both inflation and output, and, on the other hand, how inflation expectations reflect developments in these … variables. The analyses make use of a simple VAR model of inflation, inflation expectations and the output gap that allows for …

of U.S. inflation and marginal cost turns out superior to the best-fitting conventional causal VAR model in forecasting …We propose simulation-based forecasting methods for the noncausal vector autoregressive model proposed by Lanne and … simulation procedures. Simulation experiments demonstrate that gains in forecasting accuracy are achieved by using the correct …

. Revisions of expectations generally lead to larger forecast errors. Subjective uncertainty measures, which are available at the … time of forecasting, are useful in assessing future forecast errors. … inflation and real GDP growth forecasts in the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. For comparison, inflation forecasts in …

This paper studies uncertainty using the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters’ data. We consider both inflation and … real GDP growth forecasts at the micro level and explore forecast uncertainty using two alternative measures, i … are based on subjective probability distributions of survey respondents. Our analysis indicates that individual inflation …

liquidity and market efficiency. The one-day program consisted of an opening speech, six presentations, including three keynotes …