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This study presents a framework for extracting long-run GDP growth and inflation expectations from financial market data on a real-time basis. The framework uses information from both stock and bond markets. It builds on a dividend discount model of stock valuation and on a linearized...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005207154
This document reports the currently used term structure estimation method at the Bank of Finland and discusses interpretation of the results it generates. We start by introducing two widely used term structure estimation methods: the Cubic Spline Function method and the Nelson-Siegel approach....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005771133
This paper focuses on the determination of inflation expectations. The following two questions are exam-ined: How much do inflation expectations reflect different economic and institutional regime shifts and in which way do inflation expectations adjust to past inflation? The basic idea in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005648996
The present study examines empirically the inflation dynamics of the euro area. The focus of the analysis is on the role of expectations in the inflation process. In six articles we relax rationality assumption and proxy expectations directly using OECD forecasts or Consensus Economics survey...
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credibility–flexibility tradeoff in monetary policymaking. We show that if the flexibility problem dominates, an increase in … conservatism. This happens when the central bank has a sufficiently large credibility problem. This is particularly clear in the … contain useful information about the relative size of the credibility problem and, hence, about how incipient uncertainty can …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005648864
In this study, the determination of optimal monetary policy in unionised economies is considered from the new political economy point of view. In the empirical part of the study it is shown that, in addition to the institutional position of the central bank, labour market institutions also...
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