This paper presents first steps toward robust early-warning models. We conduct a horse race of conventional statistical methods and more recent machine learning methods. As early-warning models based upon one approach are oftentimes built in isolation of other methods, the exercise is of high...

Making use of ten years of daily data, this paper examines whether banking sector co-movements be-tween the three largest Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) can be attributed to contagion or to interdependence. Our tests based on simple unadjusted correlation analysis uncover...

This paper investigates leading indicators of systemic banking crises in a panel of 11 EU countries, with a particular focus on Finland. We use quarterly data from 1980Q1 to 2013Q2, in order to create a large number of macro-financial indicators, as well as their various transformations. We make...

This paper evaluates bank exit regimes in selected financial centres using econometric methods. The focus is on bank exit regimes applicable to commercial banks in New York, London, Frankfurt, Helsinki and Tokyo in 1998–2002. Bank exit regimes are studied from the perspective of bank creditors...

While the signalling hypothesis has played a prominent role as the economic rationale associated with the initial public offering (IPO) underpricing puzzle (Welch, 1989), the empirical evidence on it has been mixed at best (Jegadeesh, Weinstein and Welch, 1993; Michaely and Shaw, 1994). This paper...

This paper examines the determinants of the choice of financial advisors and their impact on the announcement effects of US acquirers in cross-border M&As. Two hypotheses are tested: one pertains to the acquiring firms’ home preference in selecting financial advisors, and the other relates to...

This paper analyses the international transmission of monetary policy in a case where all export prices are set in US dollars. ‘Dollar pricing’ implies that the international effects of US monetary shocks are different to those of European shocks because of asymmetric exchange rate...

This study analyses cross-country correlations of stock prices (values of firms) using the basic New Open Economy Macroeconomics model. We show that cross-country correlations of stock prices greatly depend on the currency of export pricing in the case of monetary shocks but not notably for...

While the importance of currency movements to industry competitiveness is theoretically well established, there is little evidence that currency risk impacts US industries. Applying a conditional asset-pricing model to 36 US industries, we find that all industries have a significant currency...

This paper examines the role of the ECB communication activities on daily Eurodollar exchange rate and interest rates. We estimate the relationship between monetary policy and the exchange rate using a technique that explicitly recognises the joint determination of both the levels and...