A DSGE model with a Taylor rule is augmented with an evolutionary switching between technical and fundamental analyses in currency trade, where the fractions of these trading tools are determined within the model. Then, a shock hits the economy. As a result, chaotic dynamics and long swings may...

We argue that a transaction tax is likely to amplify, not dampen, volatility in the foreign exchange mar-kets. Our argument stems from the decentralised trading practice and the presumable discrepancy be-tween ‘informed’ and ‘uninformed’ traders’ valuations. Since informed traders’...

This paper, which is motivated by the literature on international asset pricing and recent work on exchange rate determination, investigates dynamic relationshiops between major currency and equity markets. Using a multivariate GARCH framework, we examine conditional cross-autocorrelations...

This paper presents first steps toward robust early-warning models. We conduct a horse race of conventional statistical methods and more recent machine learning methods. As early-warning models based upon one approach are oftentimes built in isolation of other methods, the exercise is of high...

Using recently developed modelling methodology of Economic Tracking Portfolios (ETP), we find that it is possible to forecast future values of inflation and changes in industrial production in the United States and at least three core euro countries – Italy, France and Germany – utilising...

This paper investigates leading indicators of systemic banking crises in a panel of 11 EU countries, with a particular focus on Finland. We use quarterly data from 1980Q1 to 2013Q2, in order to create a large number of macro-financial indicators, as well as their various transformations. We make...

We present a model of exchange rates, which incorporates the monetary approach and technical trading, and we present the reduced form based on the minimal state variable solution, where both fundamentals and backward-looking term determine the spot exchange rates. Finally, we estimate the impact...

The financial crises in emerging markets in 1997-1999 were preceded by financial liberalisation, rapid surges in capital inflows, increased levels of indebtedness, and then sudden capital outflows. The study contains four essays that extend the different generations of crisis literature and...

Optimal currency area theory suggests that business cycle co-movement is a sufficient condition for monetary union, particularly if there are low levels of labour mobility between potential members of the monetary union. Previous studies of co-movement of business cycle variables found that...