Showing 1 - 10 of 102
This paper presents first steps toward robust early-warning models. We conduct a horse race of conventional statistical methods and more recent machine learning methods. As early-warning models based upon one approach are oftentimes built in isolation of other methods, the exercise is of high...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011210508
forecast future values of inflation and changes in industrial production in the United States and at least three core euro …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005648907
This paper investigates leading indicators of systemic banking crises in a panel of 11 EU countries, with a particular focus on Finland. We use quarterly data from 1980Q1 to 2013Q2, in order to create a large number of macro-financial indicators, as well as their various transformations. We make...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010818986
Ammer (1993). Inflation news is incorporated into the stock and bond decomposition and explicit attention is given to …-held preconceptions and confirm that inflation news volatility is a non-trivial factor in the stock and bond return decompositions. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005207150
We analyse the determinants of the variation of option-adjusted credit spreads (OASs) on a unique database that enlarges the traditional scope of analysis to more disaggregated indexes (combining industry, grade and maturity levels), new variables (volumes of sales and purchases of institutional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008509440
We study the rejection of the expectations hypothesis within a New Keynesian business cycle model. Earlier research has shown that the Lucas general equilibrium asset pricing model can account for neither sign nor magnitude of average risk premia in forward prices, and is unable to explain...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005648886
for the conduct of monetary policy, namely expected inflation and inflation risk premia. We solve the model using a third … hypothesis and the business-cycle behaviour of nominal interest rates in US data. We find that inflation risk premia are very … interest rates from index-linked bonds as a proxy for inflation expectations. Moreover, for short maturities current inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005648925
This paper studies the behavior of the default-risk-free real term structure and term premia in two general equilibrium endowment economies with complete markets but without money. In the first economy there are no frictions as in Lucas (1978) and in the second risk-sharing is limited by the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005648948
This paper examines what institutional and bank-specific factors determine bank stock price synchronicity. Using data on 37 countries from 1996–2007, we find that bank stocks are more aligned with the whole market (1) during the financial crisis; (2) in countries that have more credit provided...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010945107
This paper studies the extent to which market crashes are predictable for a set of six countries, focusing in particular on possible differences between transition economies (The Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland) and mature markets (UK, US and EU). We estimate a set of individual country and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005423692