This paper uses entrepreneurs’survival expectations around the time of market entry and subsequent venture exits to study entrepreneurial optimism. Using data on a large number of nascent entrepreneurs in the US and start-ups in Finland, we find that new entrepreneurs survival beliefs are on...

The paper stresses on the importance of understanding the operational choices, strategies, and performances of stock exchanges as regular operating firms (Arnold et al (1999), and Pirrong (1999)) Using unbalanced panel data on 49 stock exchanges over the period 1989–1998, the paper traces the...

This study evaluates the performance of international securities markets by analysing the efficiency, economies of scale, and technological development in stock exchanges and securities settlement systems. Implications for future policy and market design are also addressed. This work provides...

This paper demonstrates that the adaptive learning approach to modelling private sector expectations can be used as an equilibrium selection mechanism in a natural-rate monetary model with unemployment persistence. In particular, it is shown that only one of the two rational expectations...

What is the impact of surprise and anticipated policy changes when agents form expectations using adaptive learning rather than rational expectations? We examine this issue using the standard stochastic real business cycle model with lump-sum taxes. Agents combine knowledge about future policy...

Using the standard real business cycle model with lump-sum taxes, we analyze the impact of fiscal policy when agents form expectations using adaptive learning rather than rational expectations (RE). The output multipliers for government purchases are significantly higher under learning, and fall...

I introduce Expectational Business Cycles where aggregate activity fluctuates due to learning, heterogeneous updating rules and random changes in the social norm predictor. Agents use one of two updating rules to learn the equilibrium values while heterogeneity is dictated via an evolutionary...

This paper shows that the Ricardian Equivalence proposition can continue to hold when expectations are not rational and are instead formed using adaptive learning rules. In temporary equilibrium, with given expectations, Ricardian Equivalence holds under the standard conditions for its validity...

Expectations about the future are central for determination of current macroeconomic outcomes and the formulation of monetary policy. Recent literature has explored ways for supplementing the benchmark of rational expectations with explicit models of expectations formation that rely on...

We investigate both the rational explosive inflation paths studied by McCallum (2001) and the classification of fiscal and monetary policies proposed by Leeper (1991) for stability under learning of rational expectations equilibria (REE). Our first result is that the fiscalist REE in the model...