for economic analysis. This paper demonstrates how a VAR model with long run restrictions justified by economic theory can … index of monetary conditions; dynamic forecasts of inflation; and the relation between inflation and the output gap …

I compare nominal GDP level targeting to flexible inflation targeting in a small New Keynesian model subject to the …, for a standard calibration, inflation targeting under discretion leaves the economy open to a deflationary trap. Nominal … level rule. These result suggest that inflation targeting should not be ditched. Still, it can be improved significantly, by …

Much empirical evidence suggests that wage increases do not lead to inflation. This paper demonstrates that a 2-sector … an increased wage-markup on the inflation rate in both the goods sector and the service sector. The mechanisms we …

inflation-targeting regime 19932002 with the policies implied by certain simple instrument rules. Calibrated rules that are … describe monetary policy about equally well. A close reading of various policy documents, e.g., Inflation Reports, minutes from …

In this paper we study 2-state Markov switching VAR models of monthly unemployment and inflation for three countries …: Sweden, United Kingdom, and the United States. The primary purpose is to examine if periods of low inflation are associated … variance in unemployment. In the U.S. case we find that the variance of unemployment is lower in the low inflation regime than …

The correlation between persistent changes in the markup in one sector of an economy and the inflation rate is …. We find that the correlation is in general positive under an exogenous money growth rule as well as under an inflation … targeting rule. That is, a decrease of the markup leads to a decrease in the CPI-inflation rate. However, if inflation is …

"Leaning against the wind" – a tighter monetary policy than necessary for stabilizing inflation around the inflation … extensions to Svensson´s analysis. In particular, we take Svensson´s debt model to the data and show that it provides an … incomplete account of short term debt dynamics. Further, the overall analysis of the effects of monetary policy on debt rests on …

An approach to decomposing and interpreting the inflation process is proposed. It suggests that the low U.S. inflation …