Using stochastic simulations of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s macroeconomic model, this paper examines the implications for monetary policy of uncertainty about the length of the monetary policy transmission lag. Uncertainty is examined from two perspectives. The first investigates the...

This paper analyses the role of financial variables in the conduct of monetary policy. In the baseline model for the analysis of interest rules, the inflation rate depends on the output gap, which is solely determined by its own lags and the lagged short-term real interest rate. However, from a...

In this paper we discuss the recent experience of conducting monetary policy with a collegial board according to the Riksbank act. Interest rate decisions are normally taken with the aim to bring inflation in line with the 2 per cent inflation target one to two years ahead. When there are...

In this paper key points in the development of the present Swedish inflation-targeting strategy are analysed. Since the implementation of the inflation target strategy began in 1993, three different phases are distinguished: the establishment of the inflation target, the communication of...

Can a model with limited labor market insurance explain standard macro- and labor market data jointly? We seek to construct a monetary model in which: i) the unemployed are worse off than the employed, i.e. unemployment is involuntary and ii) the labor force participation rate varies with the...

We propose to incorporate cross-sectional heterogeneity into structural VARs. Heterogeneity provides an additional dimension along which one can identify structural shocks and perform hypothesis tests. We provide an application to bank runs, based on microeconomic deposit market data. We impose...

This paper tests the balance sheet theory, where the status of balance sheets affects the economy´s response to monetary and other shocks. The theory predicts a positive effect of cash flow on investment, given fundamental determinants of investment. I use an empirical method developed by...

The empirical failure of uncovered interest parity (UIP) is one of the best-established facts of international economics. The exchange rates of countries with high nominal interest rates tend to appreciate rather than depreciate as expected from UIP. However, virtually every published test of...

A complete procedure for calculating the joint predictive distribution of future observations based on the cointegrated vector autoregression is presented. The large degree of uncertainty in the choise of the cointegration vectors is incorporated into the analysis through a prior distribution on...

In this paper an expectations-augmented Phillips curve relation in an open economy is derived and estimated. As in Rotemberg´s (1982) model firms are assumed to face quadratic price adjustment costs. In addition, second-order costs of changing prices are not included. Consequently the derived...