Showing 1 - 10 of 27
Bayesian techniques. While asymptotic identification tests show that some of the parameters are weakly identified in the model … with the Bayesian posterior median parameters, but at the expense of some the ML estimates being implausible from a … problems with model misspecification, and not primarily weak identification, is the main challenge ahead in developing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009018126
We consider a Bayesian Model Averaging approach for the purpose of forecasting Swedish consumer price index inflation … these indicators in combination can give rise to. The results, in terms of out-of-sample-performance, suggest that Bayesian …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005649094
We extend the standard approach to Bayesian forecast combination by forming the weights for the model averaged forecast … standard Bayesian model averaging using the marginal likelihood. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005649107
Smooth mixtures, i.e. mixture models with covariate-dependent mixing weights, are very useful flexible models for conditional densities. Previous work shows that using too simple mixture components for modeling heteroscedastic and/or heavy tailed data can give a poor fit, even with a large...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008671765
A complete procedure for calculating the joint predictive distribution of future observations based on the cointegrated vector autoregression is presented. The large degree of uncertainty in the choise of the cointegration vectors is incorporated into the analysis through a prior distribution on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005190804
, based on microeconomic deposit market data. We impose identification restrictions both in the cross-section (across insured …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008520892
compared with two less structural approaches for identification of monetary policy shocks. The first assumes that shocks can be …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005649023
We introduce a Bayesian approach to model assessment in the class of graphical vector autoregressive (VAR) processes …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005207172
modelled as functions of the covariates. Inference is Bayesian and the computation is carried out using Markov chain Monte …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008469620
We introduce a non-Gaussian dynamic mixture model for macroeconomic forecasting. The Locally Adaptive Signal Extraction and Regression (LASER) model is designed to capture relatively persistent AR processes (signal) contaminated by high frequency noise. The distribution of the innovations in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008469621