Showing 1 - 10 of 67
In this paper we empirically study interactions between real activity and the financial stance. Using aggregate data we examine a number of candidate measures of the financial stance of the economy. We find strong evidence for substantial spillover effects on aggregate activity from our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005190808
given a central role in the evaluation of the riskiness of bank loans. Another novelty is that retail credit and loans to … the differences between the risk properties of retail, SME and corporate credit has been based on parameterized models of … credit risk. In this paper we present new quantitative evidence on the implied credit loss distributions for two Swedish …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005190810
We use a vector error correction model to study the long-term relationship between aggregate expected default frequency and the macroeconomic development, i.e. CPI, industry production and short-term interest rate. The model is used to forecast the median expected default frequency of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005423738
This paper studies the relation between macroeconomic fluctuations and corporate defaults while conditioning on industry affiliation and an extensive set of firm-specific factors. Using a logit approach on a panel data set for all incorporated Swedish businesses over 1990- 2002, we find strong...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005649058
both company, loan related and macroeconomic variables. Next, we obtain a Value-at-Risktype (VaR) credit risk measure, by … model-based simulations. Moreover, we study how both the bank’s credit risk and bu.er capital changes over time (had the … conditional on company, loan and macro variables, (ii) study portfolio credit risk over time, (iii) assess to what extent the new …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005649077
the complete business loan portfolios of two Swedish banks and a credit bureau over the period 1997-2000. We study rating … class distributions, - transitions and default behavior and compute the credit loss distributions that each rating system … parameters, credit risk can be reduced by up to 40 percent by doubling the loan portfolio size. We also discuss the relation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005649099
We demonstrate improvements in predictive power when introducing spline functions to take account of highly non-linear relationships between firm failure and earnings, leverage, and liquidity in a logistic bankruptcy model. Our results show that modeling excessive non-linearities yields...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009371426
Market distress can be the catalyst of a deleveraging wave, as in the 2007/08 financial crisis. This paper demonstrates how market distress and deleveraging can fuel each other in the presence of adverse selection problems in asset markets. At the core of the detrimental feedback loop is agents'...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010818850
We propose to incorporate cross-sectional heterogeneity into structural VARs. Heterogeneity provides an additional dimension along which one can identify structural shocks and perform hypothesis tests. We provide an application to bank runs, based on microeconomic deposit market data. We impose...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008520892
Using panel data of 68,800 small and large firms, I examine whether firms are subject to shifts in the supply of credit … over the business cycle. Shifts in the supply of credit are identified by exploring how firms substitute between commitment … credit - lines of credit - and non-commitment credit. I find that firms on average rely more on commitment credits when …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010818844