In this paper we evaluate the out of sample forecasting performance of a large number of models belonging to a popular class of exchange rate models. Forecasts of the Swedish nominal effective exchange rate for the period 1980-2000 are performed using both single equation estimation and VAR...

This paper addresses two important questions that have, so far, been studied separately in the literature. First, the paper aims at explaining the high volatility of long-term interest rates observed in the data, which is hard to replicate using standard macro models. Building a small-scale...

This paper aims to evaluate if frictions in credit markets are important for business cycles in the U.S. and the Euro area. For this purpose, I modify the DSGE financial accelerator model developed by Bernanke, Gertler and Gilchrist (1999) by adding frictions such as price indexation to past...

We set up and estimate a structural unobserved components open economy model for the rate of unemployment and the real exchange rate in Sweden. This approach enables us to simultaneously determine changes in both cyclical and equilibrium rates. Our results show that the Natural Rate/NAIRU has...

The degree of empirical support of a priori plausible structures on the cointegration vectors has a central role in the analysis of cointegration. Villani (2000) and Strachan and van Dijk (2003) have recently proposed finite sample Bayesian procedures to calculate the posterior probability of...

This paper estimates and tests a new Keynesian small open economy model in the tradition of Christiano, Eichenbaum, and Evans (2005) and Smets and Wouters (2003) using Bayesian estimation techniques on Swedish data. To account for the switch to an inflation targeting regime in 1993 we allow for...

We propose a general class of flexible models for longitudinal data with special emphasis on discrete-time survival data. The model is a finite mixture model where the subjects are allowed to move between components through time. The time-varying probability of component memberships is modeled...

This paper analyzes the forecasting performance of an open economy DSGE model, estimated with Bayesian methods, for the Euro area during 1994Q1-2002Q4. We compare the DSGE model and a few variants of this model to various reduced form forecasting models such as vector autoregressions (VAR) and...

In this paper we develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for an open economy, and estimate it on Euro area data using Bayesian estimation techniques. The model incorporates several open economy features, as well as a number of nominal and real frictions that have proven to...

Vector autoregressions have steadily gained in popularity since their introduction in econometrics 25 years ago. A drawback of the otherwise fairly well developed methodology is the inability to incorporate prior beliefs regarding the system's steady state in a satisfactory way. Such prior...