This paper develops a dynamic trade-off model of optimal capital structure that takes intoaccount the fact that most firms have both invested assets and growth opportunities. Thesetwo sources of value react quite differently to business cycle risk. In particular, growth optionsare more sensitive...

We propose a simple but effective estimation procedure to extract the level and the volatilitydynamics of a latent macroeconomic factor from a panel of observable indicators. Our approachis based on a multivariate conditionally heteroskedastic exact factor model that cantake into account the...

It is well known from anecdotal, survey and econometric evidence that the relationshipbetween the exchange rate and macro fundamentals is highly unstable. Thiscould be explained when structural parameters are known and very volatile, neitherof which seems plausible. Instead we argue that large...